Big Changes Ahead in Sports

We’re just a couple of days away from one of the most exciting Sundays in sports, but there’s still a lot to figure out before we get there.

As we approach the unveiling of the 68 teams, here are three key things to watch:

No one truly knows what’s happening with the last few teams, both on and off the court, but we do have a solid idea of which teams might be in a bit of trouble.

These are the bubble teams still in the conference tournament, with a chance to secure their spots with a win or two:

Ohio State University — The Buckeyes probably clinched a spot after winning against Iowa. However, if they can beat powerhouse Michigan in the quarterfinals on Friday, that secures it for sure.

Oklahoma — The Sooners are riding a six-game winning streak and have become a highlight of the season. They’ve got a shaky chance to advance to the SEC title game, but let’s say there’s a chance for Porter Moser’s crew to sneak in.

New Mexico State and San Diego State — Currently, both are on the bubble. The loser of their semifinal matchup on Friday might very well miss out on the overall consideration.

VCU — It would be wise for the Rams to not lose their opening game in the A-10 tournament against Duquesne.

The selection pool could look different in just a couple of days. While some teams are desperately trying to secure a spot, others have little chance at an at-large bid but are alive in their tournaments. A win might earn them an automatic bid.

When a team fitting that description makes it to the nets before the bracket is finalized, the previous “last team” could fall out.

If someone other than Utah State takes the Mountain West Tournament, that’s a bid thief.

And if it’s not St. Louis (or possibly VCU) winning the Atlantic 10, we’d call that a bid thief too.

Imagine the chaos if Ole Miss steals the SEC or Georgetown snags the Big East? That’s a bid thief for sure.

Even if you think you’ve got a handle on the bubble situation, a couple of unexpected outcomes in the next days could change everything.

3. What’s Next for the University of Miami?

Is there a team that could feel the impact of a bid thief? The University of Miami Redhawks, with a record of 31-1, are a hot topic in conversations about at-large selections for the NCAA Tournament.

There’s really no precedent for a team with Miami’s experience in the tournament.

While that record sounds impressive, there are issues lurking beneath. First off, Miami faced one of the easier schedules in college basketball. Granted, it’s not entirely their doing, but the absence of tough matchups could weigh on the committee’s mind.

A growing concern is that had Miami played in a stronger conference or tackled a tougher non-conference slate, they may not have made it this far. Various metrics show the Redhawks ranking around 90th, which is, well, not the best.

In contrast, when it comes to resume rankings, Miami sits significantly higher, which adds an interesting twist. The gap between predicted rankings and resume rankings is usually common, but these extremes are quite unusual.

For Miami, this is a good sign. Recently, during a mock selection event, NCAA officials hinted that the committee would prioritize wins above typical bubble standards.

Miami kicked off their Thursday with a solid win, placing them better than many bubble teams like North Carolina State and Auburn. I mean, I think they’ve positioned themselves well for an at-large bid by Sunday.

But who knows? We’ll see soon enough.

4. Who Will Grab the Fourth No. 1 Seed?

It seems everyone agrees that Duke, Arizona, and Michigan could face a huge loss in their conference games and still secure their No. 1 seed status. And if the NCAA tournament started today, reigning champion Florida appears to be fourth in line for the top seeds.

However, what if Florida gets eliminated by Kentucky in Friday’s quarterfinals and UConn makes a stunning run to grab the Big East title? Or if Florida falls and Houston claims the championship in the strongest conference this season?

The answer? Probably Florida State is still in the picture, but nothing’s guaranteed. If Friday’s games play out as above, that could stir up some tension during Sunday’s selection show.

5. Can a Team with 16 Losses Really Earn a Bid?

Historically, no team has made the NCAA Tournament with over 15 losses—well, maybe that’s about to change.

Auburn, boasting a 17-16 record after their SEC Tournament loss to Tennessee, stands in stark contrast to Miami. They’ve secured some notable victories, yet their 16 losses include nine in their last twelve games.

The committee usually prioritizes wins over losses, but selecting a power conference team that’s barely above .500 would be an unprecedented shift.