The Clippers will return home in the first round of the NBA playoff series with a two-game tie against the Mavericks.
They managed to come away with a win in Game 4, a testament to their adaptability in the absence of Kawhi Leonard, who is set to miss his second straight game and third game of the series.
Surprisingly, the Clippers have shown resilience, winning both games in which Leonard was absent and losing the games in which he played.
However, the betting market may be overestimating his importance in this series, given that his performance is not 100%.
Los Angeles opened as a one-point favorite, but is now a three-point underdog at most sportsbooks.
This is quite an offensive move for a Clippers team that could have a higher power rating without Leonard limping on the floor.
Mavericks vs. Clippers odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | -3 (-110) | -154 | o209 (-110) |
| clippers | +3 (-110) | +130 | u209 (-110) |
mavericks analysis
There is an injury concern for Dallas, as Luka Doncic is suffering a sprain in his right knee, which could affect his ability to generate enough lift on perimeter shots.
Over the past two games, Doncic has shot just 4-of-23 (17.3%) from beyond the arc.
The Clippers are forcing Doncic to spend his energy on defense, trying to match up with James Harden.
In Game 4, Harden went 5-of-7 from the floor in the four minutes Doncic guarded him.
The Clippers’ strategy could attack and wear Doncic down, which could have a big impact on the Mavericks’ offensive game.
After all, Donic’s usage rate of 36% is the highest in the league.
Assuming he continued to struggle from the borderline. In that case, the Clippers could reduce the number of double teams they send in his direction and drop more teams in the paint, where the Mavericks were able to create a high rate of lob scoring opportunities.
clippers analysis
This series feels like a personal one between Harden and the Mavericks. The Clippers point guard will face former teammate Kyrie Irving, with whom he spent two difficult seasons in Brooklyn.
Harden and Irving formed a super team with Kevin Durant, but the Nets failed to advance past the second round of the playoffs.
Due to injuries and Irving’s adamant stance on getting the coronavirus vaccine during the pandemic, the trio of future Hall of Famers played on the court together in just 16 games over two seasons.
As a result of Irving’s choices, he was in and out of the lineup and did not play in Brooklyn’s away games in states and cities that require vaccinations for players to be allowed in.
Harden used two words to describe his time with the Nets: frustrating and dysfunctional. And while he stopped short of blaming Irving for the team’s demise, the parting was far from amicable.
Harden, 34, looked younger in this series, scoring 26 points compared to his regular season average of 16.6 points. If he continues to turn back the clock, the Clippers will have a tough time at home.
Mavericks vs. Clippers picks
Without Leonard, the Clippers don’t have to worry about feeding him the ball and he can get into a rhythm. They are largely uninhibited and free to carry out attacks as they please.
Harden and Paul George will match the star power of Doncic and Irving for the Mavericks. The Clippers also have a better defensive rating (109.5 vs. 111.5) and are scoring more off the bench (22.5 vs. 18.5).
But what’s interesting about this series without Leonard is that the Clippers were very aggressive from the perimeter, hitting 36-of-65 (55.3%) from 3-point range.
It’s worth noting that Los Angeles ranks fourth in the league in perimeter shooting percentage at 38.3 percent, but ranks 22nd in attempts at 33.3 per game.
The Mavericks’ perimeter defense is a glaring weakness. They rank in the bottom third of the league in opponent 3-point percentage (37.1%) and 3-point field goal percentage (13.1).
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Look for the Clippers to continue to have an advantage in matchups with Harden against Doncic’s weak perimeter defense.
Finally, in our opinion: Action Lab Databasethe postseason home dogs with a win that opened as favorites, are 16-10-1 (61.5%) against the spread.
The Clippers are a better team right now without the injured Lenoard, and I’d be happy to take a point if they’re +3.5.
