Mellman: The SOTU fails to move Biden’s numbers. That’s no surprise.

It’s like they were trying to frame him.

Commentators were unanimous and clear that this year’s State of the Union address will likely be the most important of Joe Biden’s presidency.

Politico wisely disputed the importance of these speeches in the past, but made an exception for 2024. “The State of the Union may be one of the most overrated speeches in all of politics. But that’s not the case this year.”

By Monday, NBC analysts were shaking their heads: “It’s been 11 days since Biden’s State of the Union address, and the first polls conducted since then are clear: The president’s The numbers haven’t changed much.”

President Biden gave a great speech. He was lively, energetic, strong and empathetic. He communicated his accomplishments, laid out the challenges for the future and made clear the key differences between him and Donald Trump and his Republican supporters.

But did anyone expect the numbers to fluctuate?

I’m not one to pay attention to history.

State of the Union addresses rarely improve a president’s approval ratings in any meaningful way.

Since 1978, the average State of the Union address has resulted in literally zero change in a president’s approval rating, according to Gallup data. It is difficult to make it any smaller.

There were 16 cases in which approval ratings improved immediately after the State of the Union address, and slightly more cases (17) in which approval ratings worsened.

Just five addresses yielded an improvement of more than 4 percent. Master communicator and former president Bill Clinton delivered three of these five.

Experts called him a “great communicator,” but not one of President Reagan’s State of the Union addresses produced gains of more than 3 points, while his SOTUs produced two declines of more than 4 points. there were.

Former President Trump improved his standing among Americans by just two points after just one State of the Union address.

However, in an instant poll conducted by CNN of this year’s speech watchers, 65% have a positive response They said it wasn’t President Biden’s personal best, but it was better than President Trump’s previous speeches and better than all but President Obama’s first speech.

But while approval ratings correlate with a variety of political outcomes, these questions, which measure people’s reactions to what they hear, do not correlate with anything meaningful, such as changes in approval ratings.

The highest scores on these questions were President Biden in 2021 and President Bush in 2001.

After these speeches, both suffered declining approval ratings. So not only does this oft-cited statistic not tell us anything meaningful, it can also lead to a net loss of knowledge.

Why is there a disconnect between the importance of these speeches by commentators and their impact on the public?

First, size matters. The assumption is that a large audience means a large effect. According to Nielsen, More than 32 million Americans watched President Biden’s SOTU this year.. It’s a very big number, but Only 12% of American adults.

Even if there were large movements in small areas of the country, the overall impact would be limited. Even if the president were to increase his approval rating among 12 percent of the population by a whopping 20 points, he would still gain less than 2.5 percentage points nationally (assuming non-watchers remain unchanged).

Second, in our highly polarized society, few people are willing to change their opinions. Biden supporters already like him, but Biden haters, well, hate him and won’t take much persuasion.

Third, the audience is particularly concentrated among people who have difficulty getting around, namely the elderly. Their political habits are now quite deeply ingrained.Several 74 percent of the audience was over 55 years oldMeanwhile, only 5% were 18-34 years old.

Finally, instant surveys are literally instant. To get through the president’s hour-long speech completely unfazed, you need to keep your mind shut. In fact, about 30 percent of Republican speech viewers responded positively to President Biden’s latest SOTU.

But when Republican leaders broadcast statements suggesting flaws, failures, distortions and disagreements, voters quickly revert to their old attitudes.

President Biden gave a great speech, inspiring Democrats, getting the point across to the troops, giving marching orders, and showing he’s still on top.

But given historical precedent, it’s fantasy to think the State of the Union address will move the numbers.

That will require a particularly serious campaign, and that’s exactly what’s coming.

Melman is president of the Melman Group, which has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of members of the House of Representatives. Mr. Mellman served as a pollster for the Senate Democratic leadership for more than 20 years, is president of the American Association of Political Consultants, a member of that association’s Hall of Fame, and is chairman of the Israel Democratic Majority Party.