JUPITER, Fla. — I’m not really into predictions for a variety of reasons.
One is that even if you’re right, it’s often not for the reason you expected.
For example, if you picked the Rangers as the favorite to win the World Series this time last year, you might have expected Jordan Montgomery to be acquired and pitch like an ace in October, or Evan Carter (on September 8th Did he take into account that his debut) would be number one in the postseason? The No. 3 hitter or Jose Leclerc, who is emerging as a potential playoff closer?
The entire National League reiterated last year how difficult predictions are. The six teams that will advance to the National League playoffs starting in 2022 were expected to return.
Then the season started and the Mets, Padres, and Cardinals were eliminated. What if I told you on this day in 2023 that the Marlins would have a better record than three teams?
But every organization has a model of how the season will go to guide their decision-making. For example, among National League teams at this time last year, the Mets were far below public expectations, and because the model deducted points (many points) due to age, especially for pitchers, the team’s performance was around .500. It was a point.
The most common phrase we hear these days is that teams are trying to increase their “chances to win.” That was the extent of the Dodgers’ $1 billion-plus splurge.
They weren’t spending that sum no matter what. The main reason they were spending it specifically on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto was because the Dodgers model was making big moves toward winning a title with that duo.
I mention all of this because this is a pretty unique time, with some quality free agents still on the market and a lot of predictions in the National League playoff contention, including the Mets, being muddled. be. The Mets themselves, unsurprisingly, have a model where the Dodgers and Braves stay off the field and then mix up.
Again, this is a predictive model. Part of the Braves’ run to an NL-best 104 wins last season was based on the incredible durability of their best position players.
National League defensive MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. was diagnosed with periameniscal inflammation over the weekend. He is expected to be ready for Opening Day, but we’ll see how one or three injuries affect expectations.
Also, in contrast to the Mets’ system, I don’t think the Phillies are a mess. I think they are the third best team in the National League, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they win the National League East. I also think the Diamondbacks may not be as good as they were last October in terms of surging toward the National League title.
But they are better than 84 wins to qualify for the tournament. I like what they accomplished in the offseason, the potential for internal growth, and the value of last year’s postseason experience. Again, I don’t like making predictions, so my predictions can be wildly off.
But if that vision is correct, add in the National League Central champion and you’ll have a mixed bag of teams vying for one wild-card spot.
That brings us to free agency. Modern management doesn’t think that his one addition will move the level as much as the stars.
But the Giants have clearly improved since signing third baseman Matt Chapman, so what if their next move actually involves acquiring Blake Snell as well? I think Jordan Montgomery will be a baseball player rather than an Uber driver this year, but if he signs, what would that mean for the club, especially one in the National League?
“I’m sure other teams are getting better,” Francisco Lindor said. “And for me, that means it’s going to be fun. When they expanded the playoffs (to six in each league), I thought it was going to be easy to get into the playoffs. But , I think a lot of front offices think there’s a chance.”
Who doesn’t have a chance? Already, the magic number for elimination has emerged above the Nationals and Rockies.
The Pirates are closer to the ninth year of their rebuild than they are to the playoffs.
The Marlins entered the playoffs as a surprise last season and still have the potential for a strong rotation after losing ace Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John) during the season, but new general manager Peter Bendix was brought in to focus on the future, not 2024.
Then it’s a mess. The Cardinals are old. The Brewers are younger. The Cubs are in for a big offseason after signing Craig Counsell to a record-breaking managerial contract and essentially trading Shota Imanaga for Marcus Stroman.
With an exciting young core, the Reds added on the edge while taking a gamble on Frankie Montas. The Padres retain a lot of star power after losing Snell, Josh Hader and Juan Soto, but they don’t have a lot of depth. The Giants introduced Chapman and Jorge Soler to a batting lineup that lacked power.
The Mets sit on this mountain, and although their chances of making the playoffs have decreased somewhat due to their division with the Braves and Phillies, three teams have advanced from the National League East in each of the past two seasons.
“My biggest thing is to make sure we’re right and let nature take care of the rest,” Carlos Mendoza said. “But yes, I saw the news.” [about Chapman]. It reminded us that there are a lot of good teams out there. The competition is real. So what I learned is to control what we can control, and that makes us the best we can be. ”
