James Paxton is the most overrated pitcher in baseball.
His prolific four-seam fastball lost two notches of velocity, which prevented him from getting strikeouts (a career-low 8% strikeout rate), forcing him to work on the edges and resulting in as many walks (28) as strikeouts (28) through his first 50 innings.
After posting a 2.58 ERA over his first seven starts, the negative regression line finally arrived at Paxton’s station as the Reds allowed eight runs in his final two starts.
Considering that his projected ERA (5.47) is nearly two points higher than his actual value (3.49), we should see even more negative regression.
The Mets’ batting lineup isn’t particularly good, but that’s simply because they’re undisciplined.
Recently, he has been catching more hard-hit balls against right-handed pitchers (50 percent catch rate, 50 percent hard-hit rate over the past two weeks).
Paxton can’t afford to miss hitters so he should get a big hit.
David Peterson will make his debut in 2024.
He has posted impressive strikeout rates (28%) over the past two seasons and pitched well in a minor league rehab appearance this month, posting a 1.14 ERA with 35 strikeouts and three walks in 23 innings.
The Dodgers’ superstar-stuffed lineup will be hard to weaken, but they have struggled against left-handed pitching, posting a wRC+ of just 64 against them over the past two weeks (23rd in MLB).
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I love the Mets bullpen. They lead all relievers in Stuff+ (111) and strikeout rate (28 percent).
Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ relief pitchers have a SIERA of 4.05 and a walk rate of 10 percent over the past two weeks.
Betting: Mets Moneyline (+110, BetMGM Sportsbook)
