2026 Mid-Term Power Rankings for Senate and House of Representatives

Anchor Bill Hemmer from America’s Newsroom delves into the power rankings for the 2026 mid-term elections, speaking with contributor Karl Rove. Rove assesses the four competitive U.S. Senate races occurring in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, along with analyzing 16 key U.S. House races. Additionally, he discusses the upcoming Michigan Democratic primary set for August 4, which pits progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed against establishment candidate Haley Stevens.

Significantly, as President Trump eyeing a return to power, his approval ratings have notably dipped among some voter demographics. Interestingly, three historically Democratic groups seem to be shifting: Hispanic voters now stand at 41%, up six points from 2020; young voters have jumped to 46%, rising by ten points; while Black voters have increased support to 15%, up seven points.

However, it’s ambiguous whether Democrats have effectively re-engaged these groups. Although two of the three categories show a drop in Trump’s approval ratings benefiting them somewhat, the party may still struggle to recapture support. Recent research indicates that two-thirds of young Americans do not back Trump. Plus, 71% of Hispanic voters expressed dissatisfaction with him, with 56% indicating they would support Democratic candidates this November.

As for Black voters, the potential for a complete return to Democratic support appears unsteady. Currently, one in five Black Americans supports Trump, yet only 69% back the Democratic Party, a significant drop of 21 points from Biden’s appeal in 2020. These voters were instrumental in his victory then.

It seems that the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) brand is facing scrutiny, a real challenge Democrats can hardly afford to confront.

Particularly in Georgia, the decline in Black voter support is reflected, with Senator Jon Ossoff trailing Biden’s 2020 figures among this group by ten points. North Carolina shows a similar drop of seven points. Yet in Texas, state Representative James Talarico seems to be actively engaging with Black voters, which could influence his campaign.

Conversely, in Michigan, the dynamics shift. A new Fox News poll indicates that 75% of Black voters are supporting Abdul El-Sayed, although this translates to an 18-point decrease compared to Biden’s numbers.

El-Sayed has openly acknowledged that his healthcare policies may require some tax adjustments for everyone, regardless of income—this might raise some eyebrows.

The Marketplace survey reveals only 36% of Black Americans having a favorable view of the DSA, indicating skepticism that could hinder El-Sayed’s campaign. Historical voting patterns noted that El-Sayed didn’t perform well in predominantly Black areas, mirroring the struggles faced by other DSA candidates like Francesca Hong in Wisconsin.

In New York City, Mayor Zoran Mamdani admitted last year that Black voters were hard to reach, which raises questions about his approach regarding urban communities and whether a media blitz would help mitigate criticism of his more controversial policies.

As the political landscape evolves, Michigan will begin accepting absentee ballots on September 24, intensifying competition in state races as several governorships are on the line.

In the Senate races, several states find themselves evenly matched, presenting both parties with opportunities for significant wins. However, if trends continue, Democrats could potentially see a path to flipping the Senate, gaining as many as 53 seats—or conversely, Republicans may maintain control with no losses.

Recent polling data from Michigan suggests Republicans are currently more favored to win than they were last week, with former Congressman Mike Rogers’ approval rating climbing to 51%, while El-Sayed’s remains close at 47%—within the margin of error.

Moreover, there’s a significant quarter of Black voters who are not backing El-Sayed, hinting at unfinished coalition-building for him, even if Democrats still hold a fundamental advantage. Voter turnout will likely be crucial for El-Sayed.

In Texas, the dynamics are similar in the gubernatorial race. Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by 49% to 46%, reflecting a highly competitive landscape as both parties gear up for a tough fight.

Additionally, elections in Alaska and Minnesota are heating up as both states hold primaries that could reshape the predicted outcomes. Alaska will narrow the field tonight, while Minnesota Republicans have recently solidified their positions with notable candidates gaining traction.

As the clock ticks down to election day, it’s clear the political environment remains fluid—with shifts in voter sentiment potentially altering the landscape dramatically.