Power Struggle Disrupts Iran-U.S. Mediation Talks
In Washington, an internal conflict within Iran has interfered with mediation discussions with the United States. Sources indicate that there’s a clash between those pushing for military action and those advocating for a diplomatic deal regarding Tehran’s next steps.
The political figureheads in Iran—like the president, foreign minister, and parliamentary speaker—are pivotal in negotiating peace terms. However, insiders reveal that the ultimate decision-makers are the military leaders, particularly the Revolutionary Guards.
A source mentioned, “The Revolutionary Guards are currently the most powerful they’ve ever been.” They benefit from the heightened nationalistic feelings sparked by ongoing conflicts, which, in turn, elevate their status in Iranian society.
The Revolutionary Guards tend to gain strength during wartime. With them in charge, there are factions in Tehran eager to prolong hostilities, complicating the current negotiations.
This internal division sheds light on Iran’s recent provocations against the U.S., including attacks that, while risky, haven’t shattered the delicate ceasefire yet.
President Trump has notably refrained from specifying what type of attack could trigger full-scale war, cryptically stating that we’ll know when a ceasefire is truly broken.
The situation escalated on Friday when the U.S. conducted airstrikes on three Iranian-linked tankers attempting to bypass a blockade, according to U.S. Central Command.
The vessels, M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, were reportedly trying to reach Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman. Footage captured the aftermath, showing heavy smoke rising from one of the ships.
A third tanker was disabled by U.S. jets using precision artillery fire, highlighting the stakes involved in these maritime confrontations.
Currently, the U.S. has deployed around 15,000 troops to uphold the blockade imposed on April 13, preventing over 70 tankers from moving in and out of Iranian waters.
These commercial vessels represent a massive potential oil transport capacity—over 166 million barrels valued at approximately $13 billion.
While experts warn that escalating tensions could inadvertently spark a broader conflict, the U.S. seems committed to steering clear of such an outcome.
Despite a series of recent skirmishes, including a retaliatory strike that Trump downplayed, the U.S. has not formally ended the ceasefire.
Tehran claims sovereignty over the strait, presenting risks not only to American commercial ships but to others as well. They require tolls for maritime passage and have shown readiness to attack vessels perceived as threats.
Iran also recently targeted a Chinese-owned tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting concern from China, which advocates for renewed peace discussions.
On Friday, Iran captured a Barbados-flagged tanker believed to be transporting Iranian oil, citing suspicions of attempts to disrupt oil exports.
The U.S. briefly initiated Project Freedom to safeguard ships in the strait, but Trump halted it after consultations with several nations.
As of Friday, the ceasefire and naval blockade remained effective, with U.S. military leaders affirming their commitment to enforcing these measures.
Iran has indicated it will not engage in peace talks while the blockade persists. The Trump administration has attributed delays in negotiations to the Revolutionary Guards’ influence, suggesting they are holding the global economy “hostage.”
With negotiations at a standstill, mediators worry the issue is devolving into a competition of endurance rather than progress toward resolution.
As of Friday evening, the U.S. awaited a response from Iran regarding its latest peace proposal, with diplomatic sources suggesting it might be wiser to avoid demanding specific timelines for replies.
One official remarked, “If we stop saying we need a response in two days, we might actually get one. If we say two days, it probably comes in four or five.”
