The prospect of a U.S. military action within Venezuela appears to be on the rise as the Trump administration increases its military presence in the area and intensifies pressure on President Nicolás Maduro, labeled by U.S. officials as an “illegitimate leader.”
While President Trump has yet to finalize a decision regarding possible airstrikes in South America, reports suggest his administration is identifying Venezuelan military sites linked to drug trafficking as likely targets, according to The Wall Street Journal. These potential targets may include military-run airports and ports, such as airstrips and naval installations, as cited by a U.S. official.
When questioned about potential strikes in Venezuela, Trump firmly denied the notion.
“No, that’s not true,” he stated, speaking to reporters on Air Force One as he headed to Florida.
Earlier this month, he mentioned, “Now that we have the seas under control, we are certainly looking to the land,” hinting at the possibility of a ground offensive in Venezuela.
The administration has adopted a more assertive stance towards Venezuela, which has included destroying a vessel suspected of drug trafficking off Caracas’s coast, increasing the reward to $50 million for information concerning Maduro’s arrest, and deploying military assets to the region. Recently, the U.S. dispatched its largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its strike group to the Caribbean.
Mark Cancian, a former Department of Defense official and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, remarked that the odds of a U.S. attack have “significantly increased.”
“They’ve built up assets and operations for that. It’s hard to see them leaving without taking some action, especially since Mr. Maduro remains in power. If nothing happens, it may look like a win for him,” Cancian expressed during an interview.
Miami Herald noted that, per unnamed sources, any strike would aim to disrupt the command structure of Venezuela’s drug cartels. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has dismissed this claim, calling it a “false story.”
Christopher Hernandez-Roy, a senior fellow at CSIS, acknowledged Trump’s denial but pointed out that the military’s role is to prepare options for the president to consider when addressing potential attacks.
Hernandez-Roy described the military action in Venezuela as a “serious escalation,” arguing that it goes beyond a straightforward counter-narcotics operation, especially when targeting facilities held by the Venezuelan military.
“If we were to see a land-based attack, it would likely focus on relevant targets such as docks or warehouses used for drug trafficking,” he stated.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth commented that the administration “takes the security of our hemisphere very seriously,” although he refrained from revealing specific deployment details. He emphasized that the mission of the troops is clear and they are executing it accordingly.
U.S. operations have been ongoing to dismantle suspected drug vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, utilizing surveillance planes, fighter jets, warships, and even submarines, resulting in the death of at least 61 “narco-terrorists.”
Currently, several U.S. naval assets are stationed in the Caribbean, including multiple warships and a nuclear submarine.
Cancian commented that while the U.S. has military capabilities, it lacks sufficient forces for a full invasion, adding that they are positioned to carry out attacks but may not have the capacity for a ground operation.
In response to the potential for U.S. strikes, Russia, a close ally of Venezuela, expressed support for Maduro’s government, urging them to safeguard their national sovereignty amidst new threats.
The Russian Foreign Ministry stated they are prepared to respond appropriately to any requests from their partners in the face of these new challenges.
Reports indicate that Maduro has sought to bolster military capabilities through assistance from Iran, China, and Russia, including repairs for jets and upgrades to defense systems.
On a recent visit, a Russian aircraft linked to military operations was spotted in Caracas after making several stops in various countries.
Maduro claimed that Venezuela possesses around 5,000 Russian-made surface-to-air missiles capable of hitting targets within certain altitudes, along with anti-ship missiles from Russia.
Hernandez-Roy suggested that while Venezuelan defenses exist, they generally would not be proficient enough to breach U.S. naval defenses.
Cancian remarked that if the U.S. were to conduct air operations, it’s unlikely they would use long-range missiles, citing the limited efficacy of Venezuelan defenses.
A recent YouGov survey indicated a decline in American support for U.S. naval presence around Venezuela, from 36% approval in September to just 30% currently, with opposition rising as well.
Many Americans appear to oppose military interventions against drug-smuggling operations in the region, with nearly half opposing strikes on land targets in Venezuela.
Progressive figures like Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ro Khanna have expressed their discontent with the possibility of an attack, calling on Trump to seek Congressional approval for any military action. On the other hand, Representative Maria Elvira Salazar humorously suggested that Maduro generates more nightmares than festive occasions.
