After an eventful year, Tom Izzo’s Spartans are back in the NCAA Tournament for the 26th straight season.
I don’t know if they belong, and it’s still a dominant season — Michigan State was a top-10 team in the preseason — but the Spartans are here.
They would play Mississippi State in the first round, and although they looked disastrous in the final week of the regular season, they defeated top-seeded Tennessee in the SEC Tournament and threatened to threaten eventual tournament champion Auburn. Become.
While the Bulldogs come into this tournament playing great ball, I would be surprised if they got past Sparty. I don’t like this matchup.
Mississippi State vs. Michigan State odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
| mississippi | -1 (-112) | -120 | o130.5 (-110) |
| michigan | +1 (-108) | +100 | u130.5 (-110) |
(From DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mississippi State vs. Michigan State Prediction
(12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
I really don’t think the Bulldogs can beat the Spartans.
The biggest problem is sales. Mississippi State ranks 290th nationally and last in the SEC in turnover rate, a whopping 13 per game despite playing relatively slow.
This is a monster problem for Sparty, who forces turnovers at the third-highest rate in the Big Ten and uses live ball steals to fuel a deadly transition offense. Michigan State ranks in the top 20 in the nation in transition PPP (1.18).
The Bulldogs run a cut-and-post-based offense centered around dominant big man Tru Smith.
But despite all their shortcomings, the Spartans have a relatively effective interior defense, ranking 10th nationally in paint points allowed per game (25) and 2-point defense (47%). It is ranked 50th in the.
They do so primarily by denying rim-running cutters, ranking in the top 30 in the nation in cut points per game (5 points).
As such, the Bulldogs will likely attempt an inside cut offense, which will likely result in turnovers and inefficient shot attempts.
On the other side of the court, Chris Jans is usually a good coach covering ball screens.
But the Bulldogs’ ball-screen coverage metrics, especially on the perimeter, have been shaky at best, with pick-and-roll ball handlers allowing the 60th-most points per game (11) among DI teams. .
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To make matters worse, Smith has struggled mightily in ball screen coverage, meaning Mississippi State is vulnerable to ball screens on the outside and inside.
This is a big problem for Michigan State. The Spartans utilize the formidable backcourt duo of AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker to run endless pick-and-rolls, with Hoggard and Walker hitting a combined 10 a game.
Mississippi State plans to run drop coverage that lures ball handlers into mid-range shots.
However, the Spartans rank 10th nationally in the mid-range frequency, as Walker is more comfortable in that area than any high-major guard.
Here’s Walker cooking up Minnesota in three sets – a high pick-and-roll, a left wing midrange, and a direct off bounce.
All in all, I expect Mississippi State to look uncomfortable on offense and spark the Spartans’ fast-break attack. I also expect Sparty to look very comfortable in half-court offensive sets.
I expect Sparty to win the first game of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Mississippi State vs. Michigan State Picks
Michigan State University ML (-120) | Play to ML (-130)
