Connor McDavid is arguably unanimously regarded as the favorite to win the Hart Trophy again this season.
The Edmonton Oilers centre narrowly lost out in the 2023-24 MVP race, but he finished third in the voting and the two players who finished ahead of him (Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov) each received more than 140 points.
That's the kind of effort McDavid will need to win the Hart Trophy now that he's in the peak of his career, having won it three times since 2017.
Bookmakers believe the players most likely to stop McDavid this season are MacKinnon (+500), Auston Matthews (+1000), Jack Hughes (+1100) and Kucherov (+1800).
If I was asked to pick one of those four, I would consider betting on Matthews, who is coming off a 69-goal season with Toronto.
While that impressive streak may never be repeated, the new Maple Leafs captain could approach the 60-goal mark in a strong season, and he's also one of the best defensive centers in the league, so there's plenty more to offer than just scoring.
On the other end of the spectrum for me is New Jersey Devils center Hughes, who will likely be a trendy pick among punters and pundits trying to avoid selecting the same player as everyone else.
Hughes is a great player and arguably one of the best offensive players in the league, but that number is far too short for a guy who has missed 20 or more games in two of the past three seasons.
Beating McDavid and the elite players directly behind him on the betting board will be not only difficult but unlikely to happen, but that won't stop us from trying to find the best long-shot value in this season's Hart Trophy race.
2024-25 Hart Trophy odds
| player | Odds | player | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | +160 | Kirill Kaprizov | +2200 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +600 | Cale Makar | +2500 |
| Auston Matthews | +850 | Connor Bedard | +3300 |
| Jack Hughes | +1100 | Matthew Tkachuk | +3500 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +1800 | Jason Robertson | +4000 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +2000 | Quinn Hughes | +4000 |
| David Pastrnak | +2200 | Artemi Panarin | +4000 |
Long shot pick for the 2024-25 Hart Trophy
Mitch Marner, Maple Leafs (100/1, FanDuel)
The buzz surrounding Marner has been deafening for a variety of reasons, but if you look past the media hype, you can see why he's worth a triple-figure bet in this market.
Marner is on pace for 110 points in 2021-22, 99 points in 2022-23 and 101 points in 69 games last season, so he's one of the few players in that range who has a legitimate chance to put up the production needed to join the championship contenders.
Marner is also considered one of the best defensive forwards in the game, which would add another dimension to his status as a contender.
Mikko Rantanen, Avalanche (100/1, FanDuel)
Like Marner, Rantanen is in the final year of his contract and, with him playing alongside one of the best players in the world, there's every chance the 27-year-old Finn could have a great year.
Rantanen has a combined 97 goals and 109 points over the past two seasons and could potentially reach 60 goals if he's in good form.
Connor Hellebuyck, Jets (150/1, BetMGM)
The last time a goaltender (Carey Price) won the award was 10 years ago, but that's not necessarily a bad thing for bettors on the longshot to win the Hart Trophy.
The fact that goalkeepers rarely win the award means their odds automatically fluctuate, creating an opportunity for value hunters to buy cheaply on players who have a chance of winning.
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There are other goalies who could fill the position, but no team is more reliant on its starters than Winnipeg, which has used Hellebuyck since winning the Vezina Trophy last spring.
