It may sound silly, but had the 2023 MLB season been one month longer, the Cincinnati Reds would have been a true championship favorite last season.
They missed the postseason by two games, but the Reds’ nets not only exceeded preseason expectations. It was establishing him as one of the game’s most exciting and dynamic lineups of the next era.
Much of that is thanks to 6-foot-5 sensation Ellie Delacruz. He set a number of records for the Reds in his rookie season. That included the fastest infield throw in history at 97.8 mph, a record that would be broken within a month. He then took a 99.8 mph zip line to home base.
It wasn’t just Delacruz’s arms that were attractive.
He proved to be the fastest man in baseball by posting the league’s third-highest exit velocity (119.2 miles per hour) and the highest sprint speed of the year at 30.5 feet per second.
Nick Krall wasn’t as aggressive in offseason acquisitions as some had hoped, but the Reds’ president of baseball operations is pushing Dela Cruz and the rest of the young core group to blossom.
What he adjusted was a starting rotation that included Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez and ranked at the bottom of the majors in ERA.
These are value signatures. Considering the market cost of talent this offseason, improving the rotation without sacrificing premium assets is the best-case scenario. Last season, the Reds relied too much on their bullpen.
This allows them to maintain salary flexibility in preparation for re-signing future stars like Dela Cruz, Matt McClain and Spencer Steere.
The Reds rank 17th overall in wRC+, but have yet to see a full season in Cincinnati featuring young players who were called up at various points throughout 2023.
2024 National League Central Champion Odds
| team | fan duel | bet365 | betmgm | caesars |
| cardinals | +140 | +175 | +160 | +160 |
| cubs | +240 | +200 | +220 | +163 |
| reds | +410 | +400 | +350 | +400 |
| brewer | +550 | +350 | +650 | +800 |
| pirate | +1600 | +2500 | +1600 | +2000 |
After a disastrous 71-91 season, the Cardinals stand out on the NL Central futures market and are ranked +160 favorites to win the championship.
St. Louis was a preseason favorite last year, but age has caught up with them along with an ineffective bullpen.
The additions of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn have helped shore up a staff starved for strikeouts, but it’s still an aging group.
After clinching their third district championship in five years, the Brewers shipped their best arm out of town.
Corbin Burnes, who ranked in the top 19th percentile in both xERA and xwOBA, was traded to Baltimore for a promising player two weeks ago.
Beyond Freddy Peralta, this is a skeleton staff. Milwaukee has been underwhelming in recent postseason appearances, losing 2-0 to Arizona in last year’s wild card round.
So it’s safe to say that the front office’s ambiguity speaks to how not-so-significant improvements were made throughout the winter.
The Cubs also lost a key piece at the top of their rotation in Marcus Stroman, but received potential compensation with the arrival of Shota Imanaga from Japan.
They had a decent offensive line in Cody Bellinger’s comeback season, but the free agent slugger might not even be there in April.
Chicago’s problems were primarily bullpen issues, which caused them to miss the playoffs by one game. Craig Counsell has become the highest-paid manager in baseball, but with all these revision projects, the Cubs’ outlook is still a bit murky despite +200 odds to win the division. There is.
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Pittsburgh has made some adjustments to its bullpen, but will likely remain a punching bag in the NL Central division.
This division is expected to be close, with the Reds having the highest market value given the positive regression trend.
As long as the pitching depth can anchor the team, Cincinnati’s up-and-coming lineup can play the full 162 games to play tomorrow’s style of baseball.
The Play: Reds win NL Central (+410, FanDuel)
