This week, the California Post Power Ranking of MLB’s 30 Teams takes a slightly different angle. Post-All-Star break, we’re classifying teams into categories such as favorites, contenders, and others as we gear up for the remainder of the season.
National League
Lock: Dodgers, Brewers
For the Dodgers, the term “lock” feels almost literal. As they dive into the second half of the season, they’re sitting a comfortable 10 games above the playoff threshold and hold a commanding lead in their division. According to FanGraphs’ projections, they have a whopping 100% chance of postseason play and nearly a 99.8% chance of clinching the National League West. They seem set on securing their third consecutive World Series title.
The Brewers are also in a secure spot, trailing only one and a half games behind the Dodgers for the best record in the league. Despite being second in their division at the All-Star break, there are some pitching concerns. Jacob Misiorowski is dealing with arm fatigue, and manager Pat Murphy has pointed out that Brandon Woodruff’s situation looks “not great.” Still, the Brewers should have enough cushion to make the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year.
Candidates: Phillies, Braves, Cubs
The Phillies have turned around what started as a rough season, while the Braves continue to lead the National League East, even after a shaky first half. The Cubs, meanwhile, have shown resilience during tough stretches. They’re imperfect, sure, but their high potential still poses a threat.
With a formidable rotation, the Phillies are likely to be competitive come October. The Braves have benefited from standout performances by players like Matt Olson and Michael Harris II, creating a robust core. If not for Shohei Ohtani, Pete Crow Armstrong would be a front-runner for MVP on the Cubs.
If any of these teams can find some steady footing in the latter half of the season, they could be significant playoff contenders.
Potentially hot teams: Pirates, Cardinals, Marlins
These three relatively young teams could easily disrupt their opponents’ chances in key moments.
The Pirates, led by Paul Skeens and Braxton Ashcraft, have quietly tied for the MLB lead in RBIs by the All-Star break.
The Cardinals are beginning to thrive with emerging stars like Jordan Walker and JJ Weatherholt.
As for the Marlins, they’ve been on a winning streak and boast a top-tier lineup alongside a rotation headed by Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer. None of these teams may win the World Series, but they could easily spoil someone else’s dreams.
Pretenders: D-backs, Padres, Nationals
While these teams could technically be near a wild-card spot, it feels hard to take them seriously, given their respective flaws this season.
The D-backs have a dangerous lineup, but their rotation has struggled, hampered by injuries to key pitchers like Corbin Burnes.
Despite recent improvements, the Padres still have the worst offensive numbers in the majors and an uninspiring rotation.
On the Nationals’ side, their bullpen seems to be unable to support a breakout offensive effort from their young players.
Already surrendered: Mets, Reds, Giants, Rockies
The Rockies were expected to be competitive; as for the others, they’ve disappointed significantly.
The Mets have failed to turn their season around and appear ready to part with players by the trade deadline.
Similarly, the Giants find themselves in a tough spot, tied down by an unmovable contract.
The Reds have significantly regressed after last year’s surprising playoff run.
American League
Lock: Rays, Yankees
It’s tricky to pinpoint which of these teams is really the dominant force, especially with the Yankees still missing Aaron Judge.
Yet, both teams have made strides in a fairly lackluster American League. FanGraphs gives them both a 97% chance of making the postseason.
The Rays are having a classic season, buoyed by unexpected talents in their pitching staff alongside a solid offense, thanks to players like Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz. Their impact could be crucial as the season progresses.
The Yankees, though they need to get healthy, are persevering despite injuries to several key players, including Judge.
Candidates: Mariners, Guardians
Finding true championship hopefuls in a league where only a handful consistently perform at a high level can be tough.
Currently, the Mariners aren’t in that group, but both the Mariners and Guardians have had past success in October and possess lineups largely unchanged from previous playoff runs, suggesting they might still reach great heights.
The Mariners boast a rotation capable of holding its own in the postseason, while the Guardians will likely emerge stronger once Jose Ramirez returns. Both teams are worth watching.
Potentially active: White Sox, Rangers, Red Sox, Astros, Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers
The American League’s competitiveness leaves a range of possibilities in this category.
Except for the surprising White Sox, who have exceeded expectations this season, most of these teams have faced struggles. Yet each remains in contention, with chances still to salvage their campaigns.
The Rangers currently lead the American League West, surprising even with a negative goal differential. The Red Sox have finally regained their footing with an 11-game win streak, while the Astros continue to rely on their MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez. The Blue Jays are struggling but were just in the World Series last year, and the Orioles are back in playoff contention with a winning streak.
The Tigers, intriguingly, are just three and a half games back in the wildcard race, boasting a surprisingly strong run differential.
Pretenders: Twins
The Twins are in a wildcard position and have exceeded expectations, yet their success feels precarious, especially with Byron Buxton sidelined. I wonder if they might reconsider their strategy before the trade deadline, but a sale seems increasingly likely.
Already surrendered: Athletics, Royals, Angels
It’s tough to be officially out of playoff contention in the American League, yet these three teams have managed it. The Athletics are young and rebuilding but face a challenging road ahead. The Royals risk wasting Bobby Witt Jr.’s prime years, while the Angels might brace for their first 100-loss season.
