Monero Drops Due to 51% Attack Concerns: Here’s What the Charts Indicate for XMR Next

August 12, 2025

Simply put

Monero (XMR) prices have plummeted by almost 16% over the past week.
Investors in XMR are eager to sell following news regarding potential 51% network attacks associated with the Kubik Mining Pool.
The data indicates that the downward trend is gaining speed.

While a lot of the crypto market may seem lighthearted today, Monero—often considered the king of privacy coins—is in a state of panic. Currently, it’s the third worst performer among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, having fallen by nearly 25% in the last month.

To give you a bit of perspective, other privacy coins are experiencing a bullish trend. Zcash has seen a 2% increase today, while Dash remains steady following a 10% surge this week. Additionally, privacy-focused Layer 2 tokens have risen by 5.3% and 4.4% respectively today.

In contrast, Monero’s price has hit $251.35, down over 7% in the last 24 hours. So, what’s causing this drop for Monero?

Recent sell-offs appear to be the result of escalating pressures from a competing blockchain project, Qubic, which claims to have gradually gained a significant share of Monero’s mining power. This rise in influence raises a lot of questions for XMR holders about the future of the currency.

This situation has led to a notable increase in Qubic’s price, which in turn has driven Monero’s price down.

XMR trading volumes soared as investors scrambled to sell, breaking through multiple support levels that had held steady for some time.

With the price currently around $253, the loss over the week has exceeded 25%, wiping out summer gains and pushing privacy coins down to their lowest levels since May. This marks one of the most severe daily declines for Monero in 2025, mirroring the broader market corrections experienced during times of considerable regulatory uncertainty.

Monero 51% Attack: Real Threat or Marketing Stunt?

The heart of Monero’s current predicament stems from an unprecedented claim: Qubic states it has secured over 51% of Monero’s total hashrate.

The concept of a 51% attack is among the starkest threats to proof-of-work blockchain networks. If an individual or group gains control over the majority of mining power—over 50% of the total hashrate—they can influence the blockchain in detrimental ways.

This essentially renders the blockchain ineffective since the controlling entities can make unilateral decisions without consensus. It becomes a de facto majority rule.

For Monero, such attacks could be particularly damaging, given its reputation for offering untraceable transactions and strong privacy protections.

The network’s RandomX algorithm was designed to deter ASIC mining, maintaining decentralization by enabling CPU and GPU mining. However, Qubic operates on a new system termed “Proof of Useful Work” (UPOW). It promotes CPU mining to bolster its own token economy by converting mined XMR into USDT and then purchasing and burning Qubic tokens, aiming for a deflationary model.

Rather than engaging in traditional attacks for profit or disruption, this project creates economic incentives aimed at shifting miners toward centralized control. This reflects a new category of attacks—motivated by economic incentives rather than malicious intent.

Despite the cryptocurrency community’s concerns that this is a legitimate attack, Qubic’s founder Sergey Ivancheglo argues that this isn’t about undermining Monero. Instead, he claims it will help prepare Monero for potential future threats from powerful entities.

Recent data supports claims of network instability. The Monero Consensus Status Dashboard reported 60 orphan blocks within the last 720 blocks, showcasing notable disruption. Ledger’s CTO, Charles Guillemet, expressed that Monero seems to be undergoing a successful 51% attack.

XMR Price: Bear Controls

So, for those who hold Monero (XMR), what does this mean?

Technical analyses reveal clearly bearish patterns across various timeframes. The current price action at $251.35 reflects a critical breach below key support levels, with indicators suggesting that selling pressure could persist. Having dropped 15% last week and over 6% in the last 24 hours, it’s been quite a ride.

The price nearly slid below $250 twice recently. The first time on August 7, and again today during heightened fears surrounding the 51% attack. Should support firm up, traders might view this as an opportunity to buy low and wait for a bounce back. However, if it dips below this level, things could get precarious.

Looking at the broader picture, Monero’s relative strength index (RSI) currently sits at a concerning 25, indicating aggressive selling and a potential oversold condition. Typically, RSI levels below 30 signal that an asset is oversold. However, in unstable conditions, such as these potential network threats, overselling can persist longer than usual.

Additionally, the average directional index (ADX) for Monero is hovering at 29, surpassing the 25 threshold, indicating a robust downward trend is ongoing.

Monero’s moving average trends reveal a complex picture. The average price over recent periods indicates the potential for a bullish pattern, yet the current price remains far below both the 50-day and 50-week EMAs.

Zooming out, those looking to take a longer-term perspective might still see bullish potential for Monero. However, the fundamentals are crucial here. If the 51% attack succeeds, Monero could lose significant intrinsic value. Conversely, if the network can withstand the attack, that could foster a bounce back.

On the weekly chart, Monero is currently testing key support levels. Falling below $259 could lead to further declines below the $200 mark over a longer timeframe. Conversely, overcoming the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) scenario could open doors to logical spikes above $300 in the medium term. For position traders, this area could provide strategic opportunities, whether for long or short positions.

Important levels for monitoring swing traders: