Potential for Flash Flooding in Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
This week, the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest are facing an increased risk of flash flooding, driven by elevated temperatures and high moisture levels from various disturbances moving through the area.
Rain throughout the summer has already soaked the ground, raising concerns about runoff.
In addition to flash flooding, ongoing storms are cultivating conditions that could lead to severe weather, putting over 20 million individuals at risk as of Wednesday.
From Monday night into Tuesday, South Dakota experienced wind gusts topping 125 mph, leading to powerful storms throughout the region.
This follows intense storms in northern Minnesota on Monday, where the NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center received at least six preliminary tornado reports.
Emergency shelters were set up in Detroit Lakes, Minnesota, for residents who had to evacuate due to the storm.
Meanwhile, cleanup efforts have been ongoing in parts of Wisconsin’s Walworth County, particularly around Lake Geneva, following severe thunderstorms that hit on July 3.
A band of moisture is likely to travel along the northern edge of a high-pressure system settled in the Midwest, alongside a strong jet stream that moves across the West.
This vigorous jet stream enhances atmospheric lift, which promotes thunderstorm formation. In addition, the moisture at lower levels and air instability create ideal conditions for severe weather.
At the ground level, a stationary front that stretches from Nebraska through South Dakota to Minnesota and Wisconsin is expected to be the primary focus for storm development through Wednesday.
According to forecasts, severe storms could develop along a cold front moving into the Midwest, with the potential for damaging wind gusts classified as a Level 2 storm.
Moreover, some supercells are expected to form in Wisconsin, which may lead to isolated tornadoes.
The slow-moving nature of these storms also raises the risk for flash flooding.
The FOX Prediction Center noted, “Like boxcars on railroad tracks, individual thunderstorm cells will pass over the exact same land area one after the other.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 flash flood risk for certain regions in Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, and northern Kansas through Wednesday.
By Thursday, areas in the Upper Midwest, such as Minneapolis, Duluth, and Marquette, Michigan, are expected to see widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with localized areas possibly exceeding 3 inches.
With many of these locations already experiencing rainfall above the annual average, they are particularly susceptible to further flooding.
