As the war in Ukraine rages on, President-elect Donald Trump is offering a glimmer of hope for peace in Europe this Christmas season.
The end of the fighting depends on three important points: (1) Crimea, (2) the Donbass region east of the Dnieper River, and (3) Ukraine's accession to NATO. There are many more issues at stake, but without agreement on these key points, a peace deal is unlikely. (Related: Morgan Murphy: It's time to make the U.S. Navy the fighting force it's meant to be)
Wars often begin with wild optimism, which leads to untenable positions. In 1860, the Confederates envisioned a “short war,” and after initial success, fort sumter and bull run They thought they would be marching through Philadelphia within a few months. In 1941, the Japanese military developed a strategy to destroy the U.S. Pacific Fleet, shocking and demoralizing the American people long enough for Japan to consolidate its “power.”Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere”, taking advantage of resource-rich regions such as Southeast Asia, the Dutch East Indies, and the Philippines.
In both cases, initial optimism ultimately led to disaster.
In 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin captured Kiev and aimed to control the rest of Ukraine. US intelligence predicted that he would succeed.
Similarly, after an unexpectedly strong defense, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed to take back every inch of land occupied by Russia. As recently as this fall, he was promoting this.winning plan” To force Moscow to surrender.
But as often happens in conflict, the specter of death clarifies the mind. A thousand days of bloodshed in Eastern Europe washed away the initial optimism and gave way to harsh realism on both sides. As the war approaches its third year, the biggest recent change in power relations is the landslide election of President Trump in November.
In short, Trump's victory dashed any hopes that America might storm into war with air raid shelters and boots on the ground. Billions more.”Additional Ukrainian spending package”
The American people voted overwhelmingly to shrink the government and cut off the fire hydrant of taxpayer dollars spewing out of Washington, DC.
Last Wednesday, President Trump appointed Lt. Gen. keith kellogg As special envoy for Russia and Ukraine. In his announcement, President Trump said of Kellogg, “He's been with me from the beginning!” Together, we will ensure peace and make America and the world safe again. ” A seasoned warrior and Fox News analyst (and full disclosure – my boss and colleague at the company) America First Institute for Policy Studies) will undoubtedly create tremendous pressure on both sides.
After the election, it didn't take long for all political parties to adapt to the new reality. Putin said that he thought it was at least noteworthy that Trump “spoke publicly about his desire to restore relations with Russia and help end the crisis in Ukraine.” Last week, Zelenskiy calmly admitted Sky News reported that Ukraine will surrender Crimea, Russia's key entry point to the Black Sea.
“He has been saying that quietly for over a year,” another prominent Ukrainian politician told me privately this week.
Similarly, European leaders are quietly discussing the most likely scenario in which Russia retains Crimea and the Russian-centered Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Speaking off the record with several former senators, the mood seems to be similar in Washington.
Of course, the question of Ukraine's membership in NATO remains. President Joe Biden and his most senior Cabinet members loudly over and over again He promised Ukraine to join NATO. The issue of that promise was their crushing defeat.
The American people have great sympathy for Ukraine, but that does not extend to sacrificing the lives of our young people to protect Ukraine's borders.
Since at least 2007, Putin It became clear Ukraine and Georgia's membership in NATO is non-negotiable for Russia. Although many Western leaders seem to have doubts about his resolve, Putin is well-equipped to back up his red line of 700,000 Russian casualties. Even more American fighter jets and long-range missiles are unlikely to change Putin's calculations.
Without NATO membership, a similar UN peacekeeping mission would likely emerge. armistice on the korean peninsula Ukraine's accession to the European Union may also become a reality in the near future.
In any case, with a new American president in place and a willingness on both sides to negotiate, the new year brings hope for peace.
Morgan Murphy is a military thought leader.Former Secretary of Defense Spokesperson, U.S. Senate National Security Advisor.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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