Polling and data expert Nate Silver warned Thursday that Vice President Kamala Harris will be “slightly behind” in Pennsylvania. Boasting 19 electoral votes, It is likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election.
Silver, a prominent election analyst and statistician, I wrote on Substack Harris has a 3.8-point lead in national poll trackers and is expected to win the popular vote, but his nuanced election forecasting model gives former President Trump a 52.4% chance of winning the White House, while Harris currently has a 47.3% chance of winning the election.
“Despite an increase in her approval rating in the national polling average, our projections suggest Kamala Harris had one of her worst days in a while on Thursday,” Silver wrote.
FOX News Poll: Harris closes gap with Trump in Sun Belt states
Democratic presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Wayne, Michigan, on August 8, 2024. (Photo: Andrew Harnick/Getty Images)
But, he added, “I have another longer-term concern for Harris: We haven't seen any polls in some time that show her leading in Pennsylvania, which our model shows as a tipping point state more than a third of the time.”
According to the latest Emerson College battleground state poll Trump and Harris tied In Pennsylvania, they each have 48%. Campaigning continues in the Keystone State as both Trump and Harris campaigns vie for victory in the biggest of the seven battleground states. Both campaigns are investing heavily in Pennsylvania, spending billions on advertising and public relations.
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“The model takes into account any changes in the race and places a lot of weight on recent data,” Silver explained, “and I can see why the model would think this is a problem for her. If she remains tied in Pennsylvania, where she should currently have the most support, it means she'll be slightly behind in November.”
Former President Trump arrived to speak at a campaign rally on Friday, August 9th. (AP/Rick Bowmer)
Silver currently projects there is a 17% chance that Harris will win the popular vote but not the electoral vote, which he said has “always been a major concern for her campaign.”
“For example, even if she were to win the national popular vote by a percentage point or two, the model estimates she would still be behind 70-30 in the Electoral College,” he wrote.
Still, Silver acknowledged that Harris' unusually late announcement of her candidacy could skew the results.
“There is a strong empirical basis for this, but one could also argue that we are in an unusual situation because she entered the race late, so I'm totally fine with treating this all with a bit more fuzziness than normal,” he wrote.
Earlier this month, Silver said Harris could narrowly win if the presidential election were held, but he cautioned people not to place too much reliance on the polls, citing their record in the polls. “mistake” Regarding former President Trump:
“If there was an election tomorrow… I think Harris would have a slight advantage,” Silver said at the time. “She's leading in recent polls in 'blue wall' states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, all within the margin of error.”
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“But people should remember two things,” he added. “One, we're still three months out. There will be more surprises. And two, polls have been wrong before. They underestimated Trump in the last two general elections.”
