TEL AVIV, ISRAEL —

As Israelis prepare to head to the polls on Tuesday, a palpable tension hangs in the air. Political banners featuring the faces of leaders are splashed all over the city, and everywhere you go, people are asking the same burning question: Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retain his position?

This election is shaping up to be particularly fierce, with the potential for yet another political stalemate. Many regard this vote as more than just a choice—it’s a litmus test on accountability regarding the failures that led to the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, the most devastating attack in Israel’s history.

Netanyahu, a stalwart in Israeli politics for many years, has resisted pressure to take personal accountability for security lapses and to create an independent inquiry into these failures. Instead, his government has pushed for a politically appointed investigation, a move strongly opposed by many families of the victims.

The roots of discord in Israel, however, stretch back beyond the October tragedy. In the months leading up to the assault, mass protests erupted against Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms, viewed by many as a threat to democracy. This unrest even reached the military, where reservists threatened to abstain from training—a situation that raised concerns about defense readiness. Critics argue that this internal turmoil may have projected weakness to adversaries, though the impact of such unrest on Hamas’s decision to strike is still up for debate.

Three years post-massacre, the divisions are even sharper, making this election intensely personal for many. Family ties and friendships have been strained as debates often boil down to a stark choice: are you with Netanyahu, known as “Bibi,” or against him?

For some families, especially those who lost members on that fateful day, the decision is agonizingly clear. Shir Shai, who lost her brother Yaron while he fought Hamas, conveyed a powerful message to those contemplating voting for Netanyahu again. At her brother’s memorial service, she urged voters to rethink their choice. “If you choose to back the man who led us into disaster, please, don’t visit us anymore,” she declared. Her sentiments reflect a larger narrative of pain and accountability.

Contrarily, there are bereaved families who argue that Netanyahu has been a steadfast leader through years of conflict, contending that the main responsibility lies with the military and intelligence establishments for failing to foresee the threat from Hamas.

The current atmosphere is charged, not helped by a heated campaign. Just days before the election, Netanyahu shared a startling AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, amplifying fears of the looming threat from Iran if an “ineffective” leader is elected.

Inevitably, the repercussions of this election could extend beyond its results. Israeli law enforcement is bracing for possible upheaval post-election, and there are concerns about disputes over the legitimacy of outcomes, which some fear might echo the January 6 Capitol unrest in the U.S.

While the opposition seeks to oust Netanyahu, it’s clear that their plans for governance afterward are far from unified. Without a distinct parliamentary majority, the final outcome might be unclear for weeks.

When do polls open and close?

Israeli citizens will cast their votes on Tuesday, October 27, with polling stations typically opening at 7 a.m. and closing at 10 p.m.

This election day is a national holiday, providing ample opportunity for people to head out and vote. It’s worth noting that smaller communities and specialized polling places may have different hours.

How does Israel’s electoral system function?

In Israel’s parliamentary system, voters select parties rather than individual candidates for prime minister. The Knesset, the country’s parliament, comprises 120 seats allocated through nationwide proportional representation. Each party puts forth a ranked list of candidates, with the number of seats it secures dependent on its share of the national vote.

To gain representation in parliament, a party must collect at least 3.25% of the valid votes. Any party that falls short doesn’t receive any seats, which can significantly shift the balance in parliamentary power.

When will election results be announced?

Following the polls’ closure at 10 p.m. Tuesday, major Israeli television networks plan to release exit polls that will hint at potential outcomes in terms of seat distribution and coalition possibilities.

However, these projections are not definitive. Close attention will be needed, as even minor discrepancies in the ultimate vote could dictate whether parties surpass the electoral threshold.

The actual counting of votes will begin soon after, with preliminary results coming in over the subsequent days. Official results are anticipated on Wednesday, November 4, eight days post-election.

Who are the main contenders?

Benjamin Netanyahu, leading the conservative Likud party, is vying to extend his tenure as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. His primary rival is Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces and leader of the centrist Yashar party, presenting himself as a viable alternative to Netanyahu’s leadership.

Not to be overlooked, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is also aiming for a political comeback alongside Yair Lapid on a joint ticket. Other key figures include former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Golan of the Democrats party, and Netanyahu’s right-wing populist allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Notably, Arab political parties like Ra’am and the Joint List could play a significant role in shaping the parliamentary landscape.

How many seats are necessary for a party to win?

In Israeli politics, the crucial number is 61—indicating a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Historically, no single party has mustered enough seats to govern alone, necessitating coalitions with other factions. Consequently, the winner of most seats doesn’t automatically get to govern; rather, the focus is on which political leader can gather sufficient support to lead.

How is Israel’s next prime minister chosen?

When the official results are in, President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives from the newly elected parliamentary groups, choosing someone within seven days to form a government. Typically, this person is seen as most capable of building a coalition, not necessarily the leader of the largest party. The person selected has an initial 28 days to create agreements, with a potential extension of two additional weeks.

Before taking office, the proposed government must achieve a confidence vote in the Knesset.

What if forming a government is unsuccessful?

If the initial candidate fails, the president can appoint someone else for a fresh attempt, this time without the possibility of an extension. Should that fail as well, a majority of 61 lawmakers can request a different candidate be given 14 days to try forming a government. If no successful government emerges, Israel could find itself heading for yet another national election.

Coalition talks can stretch on for weeks or even months. Historically, forming a government has taken anywhere from 20 to 100 days. Until the new government assumes office, the existing government will remain in power.

Why is this election particularly consequential?

This election marks the first national vote since the shocking Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023. These incidents triggered ongoing conflict in Gaza, raising deep concerns about the future of Israel’s security leadership. Beyond the fate of Netanyahu, the next government will grapple with vital issues such as national security, the trajectory for Gaza, military conscription, and international relations.

With unpredictable polling outcomes indicating no clear way forward for either political faction, the resolution of this election might be far longer in coming than many hope.