Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly received a clear warning about Hamas gearing up for a significant attack, about ten days prior to the massacre on October 7, 2023. However, he allegedly failed to alert senior security officials, according to a detailed investigation released on Tuesday.
During a 45-minute phone call, United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu that Yahya Sinwar, the then-leader of Hamas, was planning a major offensive against Israel, as reported by Haaretz, which cited three senior foreign sources familiar with the conversation. Netanyahu’s office strongly denied this claim, asserting that the prime minister had no such discussion or warning.
Amos Nadan, the director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, suggested to the Daily Caller News Foundation that if a sufficiently clear warning had prompted Israel to bolster its borders before October 7, it’s very likely that the severity of the tragedy would have been lessened. However, he added that determining whether the attack itself could have been entirely thwarted is more complicated.
The Israeli Embassy in Washington, the UAE Embassy in Washington, and the Israel Defense Forces did not respond to requests for comments.
According to the Gaza Health Ministry, Israel’s military actions in Gaza have led to over 73,650 Palestinian fatalities since October 7, 2023. The Associated Press reported that about 1,200 individuals were killed, and 251 abducted by Hamas during the attack on that day.
Bin Zayed purportedly warned Netanyahu that Sinwar’s planned operation could result in considerable bloodshed, disrupt stability in the Middle East, and jeopardize the Abraham Accords. Netanyahu is said to have responded calmly, asserting that Hamas was more likely planning to act in the West Bank and that Israel was prepared for any scenario.
The warning seems to have originated from Sinwar himself, who had been involved in indirect negotiations regarding potential arrangements in Gaza until relations soured in September 2023. He reportedly instructed a Fatah intermediary to inform Israel that he was mobilizing for a surprise and an “earthquake” if discussions didn’t progress.
Nadan mentioned that if there had been a clear enough warning to provoke a serious reassessment by Israel’s leadership, a likely immediate result would have been significantly increasing IDF forces along the borders, especially around Gaza.
The intermediary and a bin Zayed adviser conveyed Sinwar’s warning to Israel’s Shin Bet security service on September 15, which led to then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar briefing Netanyahu. Israeli security officials held a meeting on September 17 to evaluate the warning but did not determine that Hamas was organizing a large-scale assault from Gaza.
During those deliberations, Bar reportedly cautioned that Israel was on a “collision course” and suggested either considerable offensive operations or enhanced defensive measures in Gaza and the West Bank, especially with the Jewish holidays approaching; however, no operational decisions were reached during that meeting.
After concluding that Israel was not adequately responding to the warning, Bin Zayed directly reached out to Netanyahu. Both former Shin Bet chief Bar and former IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi asserted that they were never informed of the Emirati president’s warning to Netanyahu.
Separately, Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel also alerted Netanyahu around the same timeframe about an unusual and potentially destructive Hamas operation, according to The Jerusalem Post, which cited the Haaretz investigation. Netanyahu reportedly reassured him that Israel had control of the situation in Gaza and was focusing forces on the West Bank.
An Emirati source later confirmed that bin Zayed did indeed warn Netanyahu by phone about the planned attack by Hamas. Netanyahu’s office, however, labeled the initial investigation an “absolute lie” and reiterated that there was no conversation or warning from bin Zayed around that time.
