Potential Role for Tony Blair in Postwar Gaza

If Gaza’s Hamas leadership agrees to the framework laid out by President Donald Trump, there’s a possibility that former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair could play a significant role in shaping the region’s future.

On Monday, the White House unveiled a 20-point peace plan which envisions a “new international transition group” to replace Hamas, governing the Gaza Strip until a Palestinian government is established. This group, termed the “Peace Commission,” will be chaired by President Trump.

The plan hinted at the introduction of other members and leaders later, but notably, Tony Blair was specifically mentioned alongside Trump, suggesting a clear inclination towards a leadership position for the former Prime Minister.

Since stepping down in 2007, Blair has remained active globally. He has notably advocated for public health measures, such as during the coronavirus pandemic. Additionally, through the Tony Blair Institute, he’s worked closely with nations like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel on various initiatives.

Blair has previously held an active diplomatic role in the Middle East, serving for eight years as an envoy for the “quartet”—a coalition comprised of the US, the UN, the EU, and Russia—aiming to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

However, his past, particularly his involvement in the Iraq War, has left him with a controversial reputation. Many Palestinians view him skeptically due to his connections with Jerusalem and his history as a key architect of the war.

His potential selection could also bring back memories of the UK’s historical involvement in the region, especially since British control followed World War I until the emergence of the Israeli state from the Ottoman Empire.

Mustafa Barguti, from the Palestinian National Initiative, expressed his discontent, stating, “We were already under British colonialism. He has a negative reputation here. If you mention Tony Blair, the first thing people would mention is the Iraq War.”

On the flip side, an unnamed Israeli official mentioned that Trump seems to incorporate some of Blair’s ideas into his peace plan, suggesting that Blair might be viewed favorably from the Israeli perspective.

In Britain, skepticism about Blair’s involvement was voiced across the political spectrum. Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn criticized Blair for his decisions in Iraq, suggesting he should not be involved with Gaza or the wider Middle East.

Corbyn emphasized, “It’s not up to Blair, Trump, or Netanyahu to decide the future of Gaza. It will be the Palestinian people.” Meanwhile, former Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen criticized Trump’s endorsement of Blair, labeling his historical record in the Middle East as poor.

Regardless, Trump praised Blair on Monday, referring to him as a “very good man.” In response, Blair expressed his support for Trump’s plan, asserting it could end the conflict and provide immediate relief for Gaza, potentially paving the way for a more secure future for Israel while releasing hostages.

Ultimately, whether Blair will play a role in the peace process is contingent on Hamas agreeing to Trump’s proposed framework. Should they refuse, Israel might justify continuing military operations in Gaza, targeting those responsible for attacks on October 7th.