In New Jersey, Democratic voters have outpaced Republicans in early voting, offering a promising outlook for gubernatorial candidate Rep. Mikie Sherrill with just over a week remaining before Election Day.
Out of approximately 635,000 early votes—both mail-in and in-person—57% were Democratic, while 26% were Republican and 17% were from other parties. This data comes from Michael Pruser, the Director of Data Science at DecisionDeskHQ.
This trend looks more favorable for Democrats compared to the early voting situation in 2021, when 58% of early voters were Democrats, 22% were Republicans, and 20% identified as another party.
Despite this, Republicans maintain a significant lead of about 202,000 raw votes over Democrats, exacerbated by a stronger tendency for in-person voting among Republican supporters.
Mika Rasmussen, director of the Lebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics, noted that “the viable path for Republicans seems to be getting narrower,” although he warned that “there are still plenty of votes to be counted.”
Some Republicans find comfort in the apprehension many voters feel about casting their ballots in person. Nonetheless, Ciattarelli’s campaign is encouraging early voting participation.
Rasmussen explained that in previous elections, Democrats outperformed Republicans significantly on Election Day—by 140,000 votes in 2024, 16,000 in 2022, and Republicans had a slim lead of about 1,700 votes in 2021.
“Considering past elections, bridging the existing early voting gap would be quite a challenge,” Rasmussen added.
Additionally, Democrats have widened their lead in in-person voting, currently ahead 68,665 to 63,178—a stronger position than at this time in 2024.
Prusser remarked, “Democrats are having another solid day in terms of in-person voting, enhancing their overall share and turnout.” He also mentioned that Republicans are about 5 percentage points behind their 2024 numbers, which puts them roughly 10 points short of where they hope to be.
However, the most significant advantage for Democrats remains mail-in voting, where they lead Republicans by roughly 296,339 to 100,251 votes, as per Prusser’s analysis.
While early voting numbers appear promising for Sherrill, there are still many uncertainties. It’s important to remember that not all registered Democrats vote for Democrats, and the same goes for Republicans.
A source close to Ciattarelli’s campaign cautioned the Post against making assumptions based on party lines, pointing out that Democrats in North Jersey have supported Ciattarelli, suggesting potential crossover appeal for Republican candidates.
Ciattarelli lost the 2021 gubernatorial election by about 3 percentage points, a defeat that was more significant than anticipated. The polls had underestimated his support by approximately 5 points.
Since then, the New Jersey Republican Party has seen a rise in registered voters, although Democrats still have a substantial lead of 860,000 voters.
It’s noted that, given the distinct dynamics of the 2025 election, the scenarios could markedly differ from 2021 or 2024, possibly allowing Ciattarelli to garner more support come Election Day.
“It’s difficult to directly compare returns from 2021 because early voting was still emerging, especially post-COVID. Additionally, turnout will likely be higher in 2024 due to presidential elections,” the official added.
Sherrill currently leads Ciattarelli by 3.8 percentage points in the latest polling data. RCP aggregates reflect this lead.
“I wouldn’t say he’s out of it, but still… I don’t think so entirely,” Rasmussen said, stressing the need for Ciattarelli to perform exceptionally well on Election Day to close the gap.
