A new poll in a key Senate race that will determine whether Republicans regain control of the Senate shows the Republican candidate holding an advantage over the incumbent Democratic candidate.
Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy holds a six-point lead over his two-way opponent, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, 51% to 45%, in an AARP survey released Thursday.
The poll also suggests that in the multi-candidate field, Sheehy is leading Tester 49% to 41%, with Libertarian candidate Syd Dowd at 4% and Green Party candidate Michael Downey at 1%. Four percent are undecided.
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Tim Sheehy, founder and CEO of Bridger Aerospace and Republican Senate candidate for Montana, at Bridger Hangar in Bozeman, Montana, Thursday, Jan. 18, 2024. Photo by Louise Johns/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Louise Johns)
Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient who served in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, is now CEO of Montana-based Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting and wildfire monitoring company. He has the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who headlined a rally in Montana last month. Trump defeated President Biden by 16 points in the Republican-leaning state four years ago.
The poll gives Trump a 15-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, the 2024 Democratic nominee.
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Sheehy also has a powerful ally in Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, chairman of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee.
Tester is seen as the most vulnerable of Senate Democrats up for reelection this year, and Republicans are aggressively targeting him as an incumbent.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) arrives to attend a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee Hearing on Homeland Security at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, April 10, 2024. (Photo by Samuel Coram/Getty Images) (Samuel Corum)
The poll announcement emphasized that “with Republicans making up 39 percent of the electorate and just 24 percent Democrats, Tester will need to increase his lead among independents or win over Republican voters to gain an advantage.”
But defeating Tester, a Montana farmer and former state legislator running for his fourth six-year term in the Senate and who has a history of winning tough elections, will not be easy.
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Democrats control the Senate by a slim 51-49 margin, giving Republicans an advantageous position this year, with Democrats set to defend 23 of the 34 seats at stake.
Sen. Jon Tester and Montana Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy. (Kevin Dietsch/Louise Johns)
One of those seats is in heavily Republican West Virginia, a state that Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020. Republicans are all but certain to retake the seat because moderate Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin (a former governor) is not seeking reelection.
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And in Ohio, a state that Trump won handily four years ago, Republicans are looking to defeat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Five more Democratic-held seats are at stake this year in key battleground states in the presidential election.
Former Republican Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland, a Democratic-leaning state, entered the Senate race late in February, creating an unexpected headache in a state previously considered safe as Democrats try to protect their fragile Senate majority. Hogan left office in early 2023 with very high approval ratings and favorable ratings.
AARP's new Montana poll was conducted by the nonpartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and David Binder Research (D), who interviewed 1,064 likely voters between August 25 and 29, and has an overall sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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