New Jersey Republicans Show Stronger Mail-in Vote Returns Than Democrats

Republicans in New Jersey are seeing a higher return rate for mail-in votes compared to Democrats, with early data indicating a positive trend for GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli.

According to figures analyzed by Michael Pruser, a political science director at Decisdeskhq, Republicans have reported an 18.61% return rate on mail-in ballots, compared to the Democrats’ 16.55%.

Experts caution against making too many conclusions from early voting data. Adam Geller, a GOP pollster who collaborated with the Ciattarelli campaign, noted that Republicans have traditionally been less inclined to vote by mail. However, this current lead in returns might suggest something more.

“That’s definitely encouraging for Republicans,” Geller remarked. “You might say this reflects not just mail-in voting, but also enthusiasm for the candidate.”

Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal Polling Firm, pointed out that early mail-in results could hold interesting implications, especially considering Donald Trump’s influence in New Jersey.

Buchanan stated, “Republicans seem more committed to early voting. When you mix that with a statewide shift toward Trump, it’s shaping up to be a promising situation for Republicans.”

In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris secured New Jersey with a 6% margin, the slimmest for Democrats since 1992. A recent Emerson College survey suggests that Trump may now have a lead over Democratic Governor Phil Murphy.

Still, despite the GOP’s enthusiasm for mail-in voting, polls warn against overthinking the early data. Dave Wasserman, editor of the Nonpartisan Cuisine Political Report, emphasized that it’s too soon to predict voter trends.

“The issue with voting by mail is the uncertainty—it can change from one day to the next,” he explained. Wasserman noted that Democrats might return their ballots later in the process.

He added that while the GOP seems energized after years of Democratic control in New Jersey, the outcomes will likely depend heavily on independent voters. Pruser’s analysis shows that independents have a return rate of only 9.32% for mail-in ballots.

Democrats outnumber Republicans significantly in New Jersey, with 2,391,043 registered Democrats, 1,568,949 Republicans, and 2,161,088 independents.

As the two candidates prepare to face off in a debate, the dynamics of the race seem to be shifting. Internal polling indicates that Ciattarelli is barely leading, while other surveys are showing a competitive neck-and-neck scenario.

Recent polls have Cheryl leading Ciattarelli by 3.3 percentage points, a steep drop from her previous 8.3-point advantage just a month ago. Previous data from the same outlet had underestimated Ciattarelli’s support in the last gubernatorial race.

As the debate approaches, the stakes are high, with voting set to take place on November 4th.