There was no clear winner in Pakistan’s parliamentary elections.
In last Thursday’s election, allies of imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan won the most seats in the lower house. This was shocking given the obstacles his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party faced, unable to hold election rallies, having no agents at polling stations on polling day, and facing internet restrictions. It was the result. They won 93 of the 265 seats in parliament. But forming a government is not enough.
Two other mainstream parties, led by Khan’s rivals, also failed to secure enough seats to form a government on their own. They are the PML-N, led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, and the PPP, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the scion of a political dynasty. They won 75 and 54 seats respectively.
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It is Pakistan’s parliament that chooses the next prime minister, so it is important to have a majority.
Who are the candidates?
Not Imran Khan. He is in prison and prohibited from holding public office. He said the PTI does not want or need an alliance, claiming he has enough seats. it’s not. The party enjoys support from the public, as shown by the number of seats won by its candidates, but not from its peers.
Analyst Azim Chowdhury said other parties were not prepared to shake hands with Khan because they had “dissatisfaction and resentment” with him from his time in office and had made it clear that he did not want to talk to them. He said it has not been done.
Once it became clear that Khan’s supporters were in the lead, the PML-N and PPP began coalition talks. They claim they have struck deals with smaller parties, including defectors from Mr Khan’s side, and new members of parliament to increase the seat quota to a magic majority of 169 seats.
Winning Pakistani political candidate Qari Zahir Shah attends a celebratory rally in Peshawar, Pakistan, Sunday, February 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Muhammad Sajjad)
But it’s even harder to know who among this motley group will become prime minister.
Party insiders say Mr Sharif’s temperament makes him unsuitable for a coalition. His younger brother Shehbaz led the coalition government after Mr Khan was ousted from power and is seen as more tolerant.
And then there is former foreign minister Bhutto Zardari. It is unclear whether he would want to take the top job in a government that came to power in such a dirty election.
But he and his party have the third-largest share of seats, making them key to a coalition government. No wonder his father, Asif Ali Zardari, is considered the kingmaker. Chaudhry said he would not jeopardize his son’s political future by joining forces with Khan.
It is possible that an outside candidate could become prime minister to keep both parties happy, but it is unlikely that either family will relinquish power.
how do you feel?
People are dissatisfied with the way the election went and how votes were counted. Legal challenges contesting some of the results are underway. There have been protests and allegations of vote fraud, with Mr Khan’s supporters particularly angry at what they see as a stolen election. Police used tear gas to disperse crowds and arrested dozens of people in sporadic demonstrations that broke out across Pakistan. The international community and rights groups have expressed concern about voting irregularities.
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What happens next?
The President of Pakistan must convene the inaugural session of the new parliament within 21 days of the election, i.e., by February 29. Members shall take the oath of office during the session. They submit nomination papers for many important roles, including Speaker of the House and Leader. After these positions are filled, a parliamentary vote elects a new prime minister, a task that requires a simple majority.
