North Korea says new missile carries ‘super-large warhead,’ but experts skeptical of claims

• North Korea claimed to have tested a new ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large warhead.” South Korean officials have cast doubt on the claim, speculating that the launch actually failed and that the North’s report was a cover-up.
• Military expert Shin Jeong-woo said the lack of photos of the launch meant North Korea was likely trying to deceive the outside world to cover up a failed launch. He said it was likely that North Korea had fired an existing missile, not a new one as it claims.
• Since 2022, North Korea has been accelerating weapons testing as it seeks to build up its nuclear arsenal, and experts say it wants to gain leverage in future diplomacy with the United States.

North Korea said on Tuesday it had test-fired a new tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a “super-large warhead,” but South Korean officials and experts quickly disputed the claim, speculating that Pyongyang likely fabricated a successful test to cover up a failed launch.

It is the second time in recent days that South Korea has questioned North Korea’s claims of developing new weapons, as hostility between the two countries grows over North Korea’s testing activity.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said Monday’s test involved a Hwasong-11 Da-4.5 missile, capable of carrying a 4.5-ton warhead. It said the test was aimed at verifying the weapon’s flight stability and accuracy at its maximum range of 310 miles and minimum range of 55 miles.

The United States should not ignore the serious threat from North Korea

The test appeared to refer to two ballistic missile launches that South Korea said North Korea conducted on Monday.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesman, Ri Song Jun, said at a briefing late Tuesday that a second North Korean missile was found to have fallen in an uninhabited area near the North Korean capital, Pyongyang. He said there have been few confirmed cases of North Korea conducting test launches aimed at ground targets.

“When it comes to assessing North Korea, we are looking at the possibility of deception,” Ri said.

South Korea’s military said North Korea’s second missile may have exhibited erratic flight during its early stages of flight, and that if it had exploded, debris would likely have been scattered on the ground.

The KCNA report did not say where the new missile was launched from or where it would land. North Korea also did not release photos of Monday’s test, unlike previous weapons tests. The fact that it tested both the maximum and minimum range of the missile suggests that North Korea conducted two launches.

North Korea will test-fire the missile again in late July to verify the performance of the dummy warhead at a medium range of 155 miles, the Korean Central News Agency reported, citing North Korea’s Missile Control Administration.

Some experts say the missile tests at ground targets could be linked to efforts to test how powerful a warhead is in destroying underground bunkers and structures.

But Shin Jeong-woo, a Seoul-based military expert, said the lack of any photos of the launch made it more likely that North Korea was trying to deceive the outside world to cover up Monday’s failed launch, and that what North Korea fired on Monday was likely an existing missile, not a new one as it claims to be, he said.

Yang Wook, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said Monday’s test reflected North Korea’s efforts to acquire a wider range of conventional weapons, but added that if North Korea had indeed succeeded in striking a ground target, it would have already released related images to brag about its accomplishments, as it has done in the past.

Since 2022, North Korea has rapidly accelerated weapons testing aimed at expanding its nuclear arsenal. The range of new missiles that North Korea claims suggest they are intended to target South Korea. Experts say North Korea ultimately wants to use its arsenal to increase its leverage in future diplomacy with the United States.

North Korea fired what it said was a new multiple warhead missile on June 26 in the first test of a weapon it is developing aimed at penetrating rival countries’ missile defenses. North Korea said the launch was successful, but South Korea dismissed the North’s claim as a subterfuge to cover up a failed launch. South Korea said the missile exploded, scattering debris into the waters off North Korea’s east coast.

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South Korea also conducted live-fire drills on Tuesday near its heavily guarded land border with North Korea, the first since it suspended a 2018 agreement with North Korea in early June aimed at de-escalating military tensions on the front line. South Korea conducted similar firing drills last week near its disputed West Sea border with North Korea.

The successive military drills by South Korea could provoke more provocative actions in the border area from North Korea, which has said it is no longer bound by the 2018 agreement.

Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un claimed his country’s economy and food situation had improved at a crucial four-day ruling party meeting that ended on Monday, and laid out a task for officials to maintain stable economic development, the Korean Central News Agency said on Tuesday, without saying whether security or foreign policy issues were discussed at the meeting.