IAEA Concerns Around Iran’s Nuclear Activities
On Wednesday, Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reported suspicious activities near Iran’s nuclear facilities, which had been previously bombed. However, he noted there is no immediate indication that Iran is likely to resume uranium enrichment soon.
The facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were targeted in June by the United States shortly after the IAEA criticized Iran for violating non-proliferation agreements. Assessments indicate that these locations suffered significant damage and have been rendered inoperable, a conclusion reinforced by Iranian officials.
Nevertheless, Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, nearing weapons-grade levels, remains. The IAEA reported last week that it believed “the majority” of this stockpile survived, possibly hidden within the wreckage of the bombed sites.
Grossi raised questions about the fate of the uranium: “Will we ever be able to access this material? Will Iran choose to keep it, reduce its enrichment, or possibly move it elsewhere?” His thoughts reflect concern and uncertainty.
Despite this, it seems the IAEA is attempting to regain access. However, cooperation has waned since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes led to an increased strain in relations. Grossi mentioned that while the agency is conducting some inspections, there’s no need to check every site, and discussions about visiting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan are still ongoing.
He stated, regarding activity at these facilities, “I haven’t found anything suggesting there’s significant work happening there.” He went on to clarify that even though there’s movement in the large plants, it doesn’t necessarily mean there’s current enrichment activity.
Yet, the IAEA confirmed that Iran still possesses nuclear material enriched to 60%. Grossi pointed out the necessity of confirming the presence of this material and ensuring it isn’t redirected for other purposes, emphasizing its importance.
He also noted that if allowed to continue enriching from 60% to weapons-grade, Iran might have enough uranium to create ten nuclear warheads. However, this potential has been limited by the recent destruction of its major enrichment facilities.
On a related note, European sources disclosed that Iran had imported around 2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate from China. This chemical is crucial for solid fuel in ballistic missiles. While UN sanctions prevent Iran from advancing missile technology capable of carrying nuclear warheads, they don’t explicitly ban the import of missile fuel materials.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program, highlighted the significance of this import: “2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate could suffice for approximately 500 missiles. Previously, Iran had aimed to produce around 200 missiles monthly, but now it finds itself needing to restock its depleted arsenal.”
