Ohio State has never finished outside the top seven of the College Football Playoff rankings since they began in 2014. It once seemed almost unthinkable that the Buckeyes could miss the 12-team playoff. And yet, with what may be the final season before the field expands to 24 teams, their chances now look close to a coin flip.
The slide has been startlingly fast. On Saturday night, USC freshman tight end Mark Bowman leapt over Ohio State safety Jaylen McClain and turned a catch into a 70-yard gain. The Buckeyes’ second loss may not leave them with no margin for error: the Big Ten and SEC are so competitive that a three-loss team, or perhaps even two, could make the field. Still, a third loss would leave Ohio State relying on other results, and four difficult games remain. With a backup quarterback likely to stay in the lineup, an 8-4 finish is suddenly possible. That’s a sobering thought for a team used to aiming for a national championship.
How did things get here? Quarterback Julian Sayin’s injury is the obvious turning point. Even a program with Ohio State’s resources can struggle to find dependable quarterback depth in the transfer-portal era. But the issues go beyond the injury. At the end of September, I thought the Buckeyes looked like the country’s most consistently elite team. That judgment assumed they would iron out some early problems in October. Instead, they’ve looked vulnerable in areas that have little to do with who’s under center.
The defense isn’t the main concern. USC has an elite offense, and Ohio State gave up 30 points, but the defense has generally done its job. The offense is another story.
Problem 1: The backup quarterback hasn’t stepped up
Ideally, second-year quarterback Tavien St. Clair would have claimed the backup job this season. At 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds, he’s a physically imposing player who arrived as a five-star recruit in 2025 and spent last season behind Sayin. As recently as the spring, there was a strong sense around the program that St. Clair had secured the No. 2 spot and might eventually become Ohio State’s next standout quarterback.
Ryan Day evidently saw things differently. True freshman Luke Fahey, a four-star prospect with slightly less hype, won the backup role. Ohio State hasn’t even used St. Clair in specific packages, despite his size and mobility. The Buckeyes had several short-yardage situations against USC where his skill set might have made sense. Day’s decision not to put him in those spots says plenty.
Fahey may have a bright future, but right now he doesn’t look ready to provide a reliable deep passing threat. He completed 10 passes to Jeremiah Smith for just 83 yards, while his other teammates combined for 11 catches. He didn’t offer much as a runner, either, and several of his throws sailed well away from open receivers, including at least two that could have been touchdowns. Ohio State’s attempt at a game-saving two-point conversion failed when Fahey sent the ball well off target.
Problem 2: The running game still hasn’t arrived
At the end of September, Ohio State’s rushing numbers seemed easy enough to explain away. Even without counting games against Texas, the Buckeyes ranked 38th nationally in yards per carry through four weeks. I thought the sample was small and that having Smith on the roster would make the early struggles less worrying.
Smith is still there, and somehow keeps getting better. I also expected the running game to improve as the season went on. That’s what happened in 2024: Ohio State averaged 3.9 yards per carry in October, then rose to 4.4 in November and 4.9 in December and January. By season’s end, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson were among the country’s most productive backs. The Buckeyes ran for 214 yards on 41 carries in their national title win over an excellent Notre Dame defense.
There hasn’t been a similar turnaround this season. Ohio State ranks 90th nationally in yards per carry, or 94th if sacks are excluded. The running game has looked good in only a couple of Big Ten games, against Illinois and Maryland, and has struggled against the stronger defensive fronts of Texas, Indiana and Iowa. Even USC, whose defensive front has taken plenty of criticism, held up reasonably well against Bo Jackson and the Buckeyes on Saturday.
Jackson finished with 121 yards on 21 carries, but the big plays weren’t there. That’s been a season-long problem. Ohio State has managed only three runs of at least 20 yards since Week 1, with one in each of its last three games. Against Power Four opponents, its three such carries rank tied for 53rd among 67 teams, including Notre Dame.
Without explosive runs, a team needs to find big plays through the air. Ohio State can do that with Smith, but the other receivers have just 15 catches of 20 yards or more this season, a total that would rank 54th among power-conference teams. Smith is difficult to contain, but Saturday showed what can happen when opponents focus on him and no other Buckeye catches more than twice.
Problem 3: A tricky schedule remains
Ohio State doesn’t face another great team this season, but it does have four opponents capable of turning a game into a grind. Play enough close, physical games and sooner or later one can go the wrong way.
- Oregon has had a disastrous season, but it has held five of its eight opponents below 4.3 yards per carry, excluding sacks. The Ducks have future NFL talent on the defensive line and enough skill-position ability to threaten anyone. A comfortable Ohio State win isn’t a given.
- Northwestern has Chip Kelly calling plays, and its rushing defense is poor. But if Sayin remains out, Northwestern’s offense could look more appealing than Ohio State’s in a shootout. It’s an unusual comparison, to put it mildly.
- Nebraska has a tough defensive front, and Ohio State may struggle to run against it. The game is in Lincoln, too, where the crowd will be loud. There are reasons to feel confident, but it still won’t be an easy afternoon.
- Michigan has the country’s best defense, which could make running the ball difficult again. Ohio State fans may remember 2024, when a similar Michigan team won at the Horseshoe.
The Buckeyes will be favored in all four games, but none looks like a sure thing. One loss could leave them waiting anxiously on Selection Sunday; two would likely end their playoff hopes. Ohio State hasn’t been in this position before, and it’s still unclear when—or whether—the team will have a capable quarterback back in the lineup. That uncertainty makes the rest of the season hard to predict.
