On the downside, initial support will be seen at $66.83. The obstacles there bring the minor row at $66.09 and the more important bottom at $65.01. This trend remains technically bearish, but the sustained movement above the 50-day moving average of $71.10 indicates a significant shift in market sentiment.
Iran's sanctions strengthen global supply outlook
Fresh US sanctions targeting Iran's crude oil exports have put bullish pressure on them. In particular, sanctions include the first independent Chinese refineries, increasing the likelihood of enforcement. Iran's exports, an analyst for the ANZ Bank project, can reduce up to 1 million barrels per day (BPD) due to these more stringent restrictions. Kpler estimated Iran's February exports would be above 1.8 million bpd, but warned that ship obfuscation practices could lead to lower actual volumes.
OPEC+ plans to over-production targets, offsetting supply hikes in April
Additionally, it gained further support from the new OPEC+ contract announced on Thursday. The seven member states implement monthly production cuts ranging from 189,000 to 435,000 bpd, and will continue until June 2026. These compensation reductions aim to prior overproduction and cushioning for future power increases in the 138,000 bpd group that reverses some of the previous curbs.
Crude oil market outlook: bullish breakouts on the horizon
Despite the downward trend of moving averages, WTI retains a bullish, short-term structure. Geopolitical supply constraints and OPEC+ discipline provide strong fundamental support. Confirmed breakouts above $68.97 could trigger a purchase right to target between $70 and $71 in the short term. As long as WTI is above $66.83, bias remains upwards and the market is poised for testing key resistance levels.
Details of the economic calendar.
