Olympics’ 8 men’s basketball teams still standing, ranked by gold medal chances

The men’s basketball tournament at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games is on its way to deciding the champion. After the group stage, the 12 teams have been whittled down to eight, and now a knockout tournament will be played until one team stands at the top of the podium with the gold medal.

Heading into the knockout stage, the United States is the clear favorite to win. The U.S. has won seven of the last eight Olympic gold medals in men’s basketball and advanced through the group stage with the best goal differential of the tournament. Germany and Canada are the biggest contenders for the gold medal, but the U.S. won’t play either of them until the knockout stage.

The tournament has been star-studded and thrilling so far, and things are set to get even more exciting in the knockout rounds, where anything can happen in 40-minute FIBA ​​single-elimination games. The schedule and bracket for the knockout rounds of the Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Tournament can be found here. Here’s how we rank the remaining eight teams by their chances of winning the gold medal:

8. Brazil

Brazil made it to the knockout stage thanks to former Raptors first-round draft pick Bruno Caboclo (famous for his “two years, two years” slogan). Caboclo led Brazil to the knockout stage with 33 points (13-of-19 field goal attempts) and 17 rebounds against Japan. Only Greece scored fewer points than Brazil in the group stage, but veterans like Vitor Benite, Leo Meindl and Raul Neto gave the team a competitive foundation. It would take a miracle to beat Team USA in the quarterfinals, but Brazil still had a successful tournament.

7. Greece

Giannis Antetokounmpo is dominating Greece at the Olympics. Giannis is the tournament’s leading scorer, averaging 27 points per game, and he also has Greece’s second-toughest defense in points allowed. The problem is that Antetokounmpo doesn’t have much help around him on the offensive end. Only one of his teammates is averaging double figures in points (Vassilis Triopoulos at 12 points per game), and no one else on the team is shooting better than 43% from the field. Greece’s 233 points are the fewest of any team that’s made it to the knockout stage. The offense may be struggling as hell right now, but they should be proud that Giannis’ superhuman two-way ability carried them to the knockout rounds.

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6. France

As the host nation, France is under pressure to advance, but right now, their roster is flawed and not good enough to do so. Victor Wembanyama was great on both ends of the court in his Olympic debut, but his teammates have struggled to get him the ball in favorable situations. So far, France has been hampered by their guard play. Frank Ntilikina and Matthew Strazelle have not been able to get to the basket as easily as most of the backcourt in this tournament, and Evan Fournier’s shooting has dropped since his strong showing at the last Tokyo Olympics. With Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert very good defensively, France has a chance in any matchup, but it’s hard to win without good guard play.

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5. Australia

Despite going 1-2, Australia finished second in the “group of death.” Australia is learning that they can’t rely as much on soon-to-be 36-year-old Patty Mills in this tournament. Mills, who led Australia to a bronze medal at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, has struggled offensively so far, making just 30% of his two-point field goals. Younger teammates are filling the void. Josh Giddey has stepped up as the Boomers’ new leader, providing the team with a solid combination of scoring (15 points) and playmaking (6.7 assists) since the start of the tournament. Big Jock Landale has been great inside, providing very efficient scoring (17.7 points per game on 68.8% two-point shooting) and rebounding. As Australia advances to the knockout round to face Serbia, a focus will be on improving their free throw percentage. Their 63.5% free throw percentage is the worst of any team that made it through the group stage.

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4. Serbia

Serbia never felt like they played their best in the group, but they still cruised to victory with the fourth-best goal differential of +26. The big issue for Serbia right now is their defense, which has allowed 87 points per game through three games, the worst of any team that made it to the knockout rounds. Serbia will have to rely heavily on their offense, but that won’t be an issue since they have the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic, at the center of their offense. Jokic averaged 18.7 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists per game in group play, placing him in the top 10 in each category. Serbia’s shooters are still not in top form, and this was their second-best offense in group play. If Bogdan Bogdanovic and company get hot from deep, Serbia with Jokic at the helm will be dangerous in 40-minute FIBA ​​games. Although they face a tough matchup against Australia in the quarter-finals and a tougher challenge against the USA in the semi-finals, Serbia still have the talent to have a real chance of achieving something special.

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3. Germany

It’s no surprise that Germany has been doing so well in the Olympics. They are the defending FIBA ​​World Cup champions and continue to look the most cohesive team in the field. Germany’s defense has been the biggest surprise of the tournament so far. While every other team allowed an average of 80 or more points per game in group play, Germany started 3-0 and held opponents to just 73.7 points. Germany’s offense has been great as the third highest scoring team in group play. Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner are bona fide FIBA ​​stars in the outfield, while Moe Wagner and Daniel Theis provide toughness and have been great on the inside. Underestimating Germany in this tournament is at your own peril. This team is really strong.

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2. Canada

Canada emerged unscathed from the so-called “Group of Death” with wins over Australia, Greece and Spain. It wasn’t always pretty, though. Canada has struggled with three-point shooting (33.8% from three in three games) and has one of the weaker frontcourts in the remaining tournament, but there’s still a lot to like about this team. RJ Barrett is playing the best of his career as Canada’s leading scorer, showcasing the downhill scoring ability that once made him a top NBA prospect. Dillon Brooks is also playing great, sometimes feeling like the emotional leader of this group with his defensive intensity and knack for making big shots. It all still revolves around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a 26-year-old MVP candidate who can be the best player on the court regardless of the opponent. With Canada potentially facing France in the quarterfinals and Germany in the semifinals, it’s a tough road to a gold medal, but if they play at their best, this team has the second-best chance of winning one of the teams in the field.

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1. United States

If there were any concerns after the USA played a few close exhibition games, their dominating win in Group C should confirm that this team is arguably the best. The USA swept medal favorite Serbia in the opening game, then comfortably beat South Sudan and Puerto Rico. The toughest test for the USA is coming up, but this team seems to have the answer to every question that can be thrown at them. LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are a great foundation for this team. Not only because they are three top 20 players of all time, but because their play meshes seamlessly. Joel Embiid has struggled to adjust at times, but the frontcourt remains great with both Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo playing well. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are a great addition to the team. Celtics They join the national team and offer their signature defensive versatility and offensive coordination skillset. Anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, but Team USA deserves to be the overwhelming favorite to win.