September 2025 is defying its usual reputation as a downturn month for stocks. Traditionally seen as the weakest time for the market, September has, so far, shown trends that buck this norm. Instead of dropping, stocks have actually climbed, driven by a significant push to build infrastructure that essentially turns the world into one massive data center. The week wraps up with reminders of the Bank of Japan’s recent policy choice, a scheduled discussion between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, stock indices hitting record highs, and some unsettling news regarding new cybersecurity incidents.
For those not immersed in finance, these weeks can feel a bit puzzling. The headlines are filled with discussions about interest rates, shipbuilders, and debt levels. To an outside observer, it may seem like an ongoing cycle of experts speaking a language that feels altogether foreign.
Stepping away from that bubble offers a refreshing perspective. Interestingly, a bit of research revealed that September 19th was actually marked by an international lecture, originally just a saying about harvesting alfalfa. It’s funny—perhaps finance isn’t all that different from these niche events. The attendees might just don fleece vests in place of velvet coats, exchanging pleasantries in market terms instead of saying, “ahoy mathematician.”
As anticipated, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates this Wednesday, prompting active responses in the stock market. The S&P 500 rose by 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 by 0.95%, the Dow Jones by 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 surged 2.5% to a new high. The Fed has become increasingly optimistic, hinting that further rate cuts may be limited. This sentiment has kept the bond market even more constrained, with investors watching closely for any signs regarding Jerome Powell’s potential exit and its implications for monetary policy.
Over in Europe, the markets mirrored Wall Street’s movements. The CAC 40 rose by 0.9%, with the DAX up 1.35%. The semiconductor sector gained momentum after Nvidia’s investment in Intel resulted in a 23% boost for the latter, leading to profits across the sector for companies like Soitec and ASML.
In other news, central banks are center stage. The Bank of Japan maintained its overnight rates, though they signaled plans to gradually reduce large ETF holdings by about $4.2 billion annually, which gave the yen a conservative boost.
On the geopolitical front, all eyes are on the phone call scheduled between US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping this afternoon. This conversation aims to navigate both competitive areas and opportunities for collaboration. Trump also expressed disappointment regarding Vladimir Putin.
In Asian markets, trends seem to contrast somewhat with the previous day. Japan has dipped by 0.9%, South Korea by 0.7%, India by 0.4%, and Taiwan by 0.2%. However, Australia saw an uptick of 0.7%, and Hong Kong is slowly improving. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index hasn’t shown much movement this week.
Today’s economic highlights
German producer prices and UK retail sales will take a back seat today, without significant US economic data to report.
- USD/GBP: 0.7425 BGP
- gold: 3,650 USD
- Crude oil (brent): 67.18 USD
- 10 years in the US: 4.122%
- Bitcoin: 116,200 USD
Corporate News:
- Apple saw long lines for the iPhone 17 launch at its flagship store in Beijing, signaling a strong start for this model in China. Analysts believe this lineup could help Apple regain market share, especially against competitors like Xiaomi and Huawei.
- FedEx shares jumped 5.4% in pre-market trading after reporting quarterly revenue and profit that exceeded expectations, thanks to cost reduction strategies and robust domestic delivery despite weaker international numbers.
- Ford Motor is recalling 101,944 Taurus sedans in the US due to faulty doors, as announced by the NHTSA.
- Jasper Therapeutics is expected to drop 13% in after-hours trading as the company seeks to raise funds.
- Jeffries reported that Mitsui Bank, a Japanese bank under the Mitsui Financial Group, will invest an additional 135 billion yen (around $912.84 million) into US investment banks.
- LENNAR, the home building company, fell 2.9% in pre-market trading after citing a 46% drop in quarterly profits due to inflationary pressures affecting demand.
- Mastercard and Visa are being discussed by the EU’s finance minister, who is working on creating a European digital currency to reduce reliance on the current dominant US systems. The ECB aims to have the law in place by the first half of 2026.
- MetLife’s rating was downgraded from “overweight” to “neutral” by Piper Sandler, resulting in a 1.2% drop in pre-market trading.
- Modanya has come to an agreement with Arniram Pharmaceuticals, based on documents filed in Delaware federal court.
- Nvidia is exploring a potential $500 million investment in the UK autonomous driving company Wayve during its next funding round.
- United Parcel Service shares increased by 1.6% in after-hours trading after finalizing its acquisition of the Mexican delivery firm Estafeta.
Analyst Recommendations:
- Armstrong World Industries: Zelman & Associates maintained an outperform recommendation, raising the target price from USD 214 to USD 224.
- Cloud Strike Holdings: Canaccord Genuity kept a pending recommendation and increased its target price from USD 430 to USD 500.
- Darden Restaurant: Argus Research continues to endorse its purchase recommendation, adjusting the target price from USD 260 to USD 220.
- Dupont de Nemours: City maintained its buy recommendation and raised the target price from USD 85 to USD 93.
- Factset Research System: Goldman Sachs continues a sell recommendation, lowering the target price from USD 412 to USD 282.
- Fedex: ARC Independent Research sustained its buy recommendation, increasing the target price from USD 267 to USD 270.
- HF Sinclair: TD Cowen maintained a pending recommendation, raising its target price from USD 46 to USD 50.
- Hologic: Argus Research continues to support its buy recommendations, lifting its target price from USD 80 to USD 90.
- Intel: New Street Research kept a neutral recommendation and raised its target price from USD 23 to USD 32.
- Johnson & Johnson: Goldman Sachs sustained its buy recommendations, adjusting the target price from USD 185 to USD 186.
- Marathon Oil: TD Cowen maintained its buy recommendations, increasing its target price from USD 182 to USD 195.
- Meta Platform: China Merchants Securities kept its buy recommendations, lowering its target price from USD 866 to USD 780.
- mongodb: Canaccord Genuity maintained its buy recommendations, raising the target price from USD 340 to USD 375.
- Phillips 66: TD Cowen maintained its buy recommendations, reducing its target price from USD 134 to USD 133.
- Valero Energy: TD Cowen maintained its pending recommendation, raising its target price from USD 140 to USD 162.
