OPEC+ has decided to maintain its current oil output levels for March. This decision comes despite oil prices reaching a six-month high, partly due to fears that the U.S. might initiate military action against Iran, an OPEC member, as noted by the group on Sunday.
During a meeting of eight OPEC+ nations, Brent crude oil prices were nearing $70 a barrel on Friday, close to the $71.89 high from Thursday. This is surprising, considering there are forecasts suggesting an oversupply in 2026 might lead to a price drop.
The eight countries participating—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—had earlier increased their production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December, equating to around 3% of global demand.
Back in November, further production hikes planned for the January-March timeframe were frozen due to expected seasonal drops in consumption.
The brief meeting on Sunday reaffirmed this stance for March, echoing similar decisions made in January and February.
Jorge León, a former OPEC official now leading geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, pointed out that the statement from Sunday didn’t hint at what might happen in the months ahead, which he deemed significant. “Given the rising uncertainty regarding the U.S.-Iran tensions, OPEC+ is keeping all options open,” he mentioned.
León added that OPEC’s own figures suggest a decline in demand for OPEC+ crude during the second quarter, which might limit potential production increases.
OPEC+ encompasses the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies like Russia, together supplying nearly half of global oil.
Additionally, a separate OPEC+ panel known as the Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee met on Sunday; however, it lacks the authority to make production policy decisions.
A statement from OPEC emphasized the need for full compliance with the existing output agreement, highlighting the committee’s focus.
Meanwhile, President Trump is reportedly weighing options against Iran, including targeted strikes aimed at its security forces to bolster domestic protests. This news comes in light of extensive U.S. sanctions meant to curb Tehran’s oil revenues, a vital funding source for the state.
Although the U.S. and Iran have indicated a willingness to engage in dialogue, Tehran specified on Friday that discussions should exclude defense capabilities.
Oil prices have also been bolstered by supply setbacks in Kazakhstan, where ongoing disruptions have affected the oil sector. The country announced on Wednesday plans to gradually restart its major Tengiz oil field.
The next meeting of the eight countries is scheduled for March 1st, and the JMMC is set to convene again on April 5th.
