Patrick Mahomes’ supposed ‘down year’ is still giving the Chiefs everything they need

of kansas city chiefs We can and will continue to get away with it.

After WR Laci Rice was sidelined for an extended period of time with an injury, I wrote about how I felt the Chiefs offense had very little room for error offensively, and the biggest reason was their inability to generate explosives. Not sure about them.

But while I think both the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes have done a good job with this version, the raw numbers don't tell the whole story. Through seven games, Mahomes has more interceptions than touchdowns (eight INTs, six TDs). Those six passing touchdowns are by far the lowest through seven games of his entire career. However, the Chiefs offense and Mahomes have the best success rate in the NFL at 51.3%. This means that more than half the time they snap the ball, they are making a successful play. For context, this is the sixth-best seven-week success rate for any team since 2018.

Even though the feel of the offense hasn't changed much, they're still one of the best teams in the league when it comes to moving the chains and creating first downs.

So if Mahomes is scoring more interceptions than touchdowns and the passing offense feels so sluggish, how are they still able to do this at an incredibly high level? Is there one?

The evolution of the Chiefs' offense has been remarkable. From the moment Mahomes took over the current offense, there has been a change in the way the team runs the offense. First, they obviously aren't throwing the ball downfield as much. Mahomes' current average throw depth of 5.1 yards is by far the lowest of his career and is a significant decrease from his 9.8 yards per throw in 2019. As much as we want this offense to be the fun, powerful, and explosive offense it used to be, we want it to be as fun and powerful and explosive as it used to be. I know in KC, but I think it's time to let it go. This crime no longer produces as many explosives as it used to, for a variety of reasons. The first is that there isn't enough trust between Mahomes and the small, healthy downfield targets on this team. First-round pick Xavier Worthy has played well in spurts, but he and Mahomes still lack the downfield synchronization that Mahomes had with Tyreek Hill.

against 49ersthere was a chance, but either Mahomes missed it.

Or something goes horribly wrong, like Worthy stumbles here leading to an interception.

That, combined with the lack of downfield options, is why this offense doesn't feel explosive. Mahomes has totaled 20 or more air yards just five times this season, his lowest total in seven games since 2020. So if they don't have explosiveness downfield, how can this offense still move the ball and rank in the top 15 in points per game? The answer is simple. Because they defeat their enemies with the most brutal and effective attacks in the game.

People point to Mahomes' aDOT and air yards per completion and say he's checking at a higher rate. Well, the answer to that is both yes and no. The QB checks it much more often, but the way the KC offense is built, Mahomes, and the passing game can enjoy numbers and angles. You often see Kansas City running bubbles behind run plays, and it's not necessarily an RPO, but if Mahomes is counting those numbers in the box and it's more than he can block, he You can turn it around. on the screen. This is an example of a win against the Saints. Mahomes looks at the box count and throws it to the bubble.

This especially happens on early downs as the Chiefs offense has become so dynamic. The way they run the ball (11th in EPA per carry on all RB runs and 8th in positive play percentage in the same metric) allows the offense to shred teams and use misdirection and misdirection to get behind the grass. Leaves can be defended horizontally. Their improved run game. This also just reads the number of boxes. With Worthy's threat in the bubble slot, the overhang defender goes with him, giving you six blockers versus six box defenders. The result was a positive return for Kareem Hunt.

Where the rubber really comes into play for Mahomes is on downs in the second half. The Chiefs will ask him to be more of a distributor on early downs, but on third and fourth downs he'll take on the wizard's mantle for Kansas City. His average throw depth improves by almost 3 yards on late downs, his EPA per attempt increases significantly, and on top of that, his scrambles become much more effective.

Patrick Mahomes has been very effective as a scrambler this year —ESPN's Ben Solak Mahomes has an impressive 87.5% scramble success rate this year, but that comes at a time when the Chiefs need him the most. When Kansas City needs nine yards on third-and-8, they turn to Mahomes, and he's never denied.

Or if there's a hole in the zone on a late down, he just scrambles for enough to make you angry watching it on TV.

In some ways, Mahomes has become the Tom Brady of a new era of NFL quarterbacks. He keeps the offense on schedule during early downs, but it's the little things he does in terms of movement in the pocket and manipulating defenders underneath him that define him on early downs. But when the Chiefs need him most, timely scrambles on late downs and traditional Mahomes magic define the Chiefs' work.

No, it's not beautiful, no, it's not explosive. But it's very efficient and has the most efficient QB in the game at the forefront.