Alaska’s closely contested Senate race is expected to see another release of vote totals Tuesday night. Monday’s count widened Democratic candidate Mary Peltola’s lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan to 2,517 first-choice votes.
As of Tuesday midday Eastern time, Peltola had 48.6%, or 106,321 votes, while Sullivan had 47.5%, or 103,804. If no candidate clears 50%, Alaska’s ranked-choice voting process will determine the winner.
Republican Gerald Heikes had 2.2% of the vote, and independent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. had 1.7%. About 75% to 76% of expected ballots have been counted, with tens of thousands of early, absentee and questioned ballots still outstanding.
In a statement Tuesday morning, Peltola campaign manager Cheryl Bruce said the campaign believed Peltola would win once all ballots were counted. Bruce said Peltola had won the latest batch by a 68% to 30% margin, with strong support in Anchorage and Chevak, and said she would continue working to lower costs and put Alaska first.
Monday’s update added nearly 5,000 ballots. Before then, Peltola had held a narrow lead of 637 votes for several days after Election Day.
Sullivan and President Donald Trump have both suggested that Sullivan could benefit if the race goes to a second or third round of ranked-choice tabulation. Under Alaska’s system, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated if no one has a majority, and those ballots are reassigned based on voters’ next preferences. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. currently occupies last place, and transfers from his ballots could help Peltola pass 50%.
The official ranked-choice count is scheduled for Nov. 18, after the deadline for overseas absentee ballots.
The drawn-out count follows the timeline Gov. Mike Dunleavy described in a Sunday interview. He called the state’s process “very confusing” and “a slow system,” and pointed to major ballot updates expected Friday, Nov. 13, and Wednesday, Nov. 18.
Dunleavy also said an investigation is continuing into Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.’s candidacy, which some Republicans have alleged was meant to draw votes away from the incumbent. The governor said the Division of Elections and the Department of Justice are examining related questions.
“We’re still in the process of bringing in votes and counting votes,” Dunleavy said Sunday. He added that investigators were looking into whether there had been wrongdoing, including possible perjury or a misrepresentation of a candidate’s intentions.
Other statewide races are also unresolved as ballots continue to be counted. Certification is scheduled for Nov. 25.
Democrats are projected to control the Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term, with a 54-44 advantage while the Alaska and Mississippi races remain too close to call. In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by about 2,500 votes, 49.08% to 48.81%.
If Democrats win both outstanding seats, they would hold a 56-44 advantage in the chamber. The party has won all nine Senate seats that have changed hands in these midterm elections.
