College football is getting better with each passing week, with Saturday's captivating Big Ten matchup between Penn State and the University of Southern California.
In the Trojans' first year in the conference, this game will be a big opportunity for them to make a statement.
The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, have championship aspirations and hope to get the job done on this road trip out West.
Let's watch the match and make predictions.
Penn State vs. University of Southern California odds
| team | spread | money line | over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| pennsylvania state university | -3.5 (-110) | -175 | o51 (-105) |
| University of Southern California | +3.5 (-110) | +145 | u51 (-115) |
Penn State vs. University of Southern California predictions
When Penn State has the ball
Running back Nicholas Singleton missed last week's win over UCLA but is expected to return this week. He forms a deadly tandem with Caitron Allen, both capable of taking away big runs. They have a total of 22 carries of 10 yards or more.
There should be plenty of breathing room against USC's run defense, which ranks 104th in yards allowed per carry and has had double-digit missed tackles in multiple games this season.
USC's defense has gotten better this season under coach Danton Lin, but it still struggles to contain its scoring outburst. The Trojans allowed five rushes of 39 yards or more.
Last week, Minnesota's Darius Taylor gained 115 yards after contact and was forced into six missed tackles. Two weeks ago, Michigan's Karel Mullins was averaging nearly 10 yards per carry and posting a whopping 73% breakaway run rate.
If the Trojans choose to load the box, quarterback Drew Allard can pay by taking the top off the defense.
Aller's efficiency in Andy Kotelnicki's offense has improved dramatically. He completed 70.9% of his passes for 10.7 yards per attempt. In comparison, the success rate in 2023 was 59.6% and YPA was 6.7. They also rank third in the country in YPA in deep passes.
When USC has the ball
Miller Moss has been great as the starting QB this season, but he has taken a lot of big hits behind a dominant USC offensive line.
The Trojans rank 128th in pass blocking and 119th in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus. The same goes for the Nittany Lions' pass rush, which ranks fifth in the country.
While USC has plenty of big-play weapons at receiver, Penn State has a strong coverage unit that ranks 17th in yards per dropback this season. The player to watch in this game is cornerback AJ Harris. He has zero touchdowns in coverage this year and a passer rating of 32.9.
Running back Woody Marks, a transfer from Mississippi State, got off to a strong start to the season with 468 rushing yards and four touchdowns, but this is the toughest challenge he's faced. PSU ranks in the top six nationally in EPA/rush and yards per carry allowed.
Penn State vs. University of Southern California nomination
USC faces a more difficult schedule this season, and Lincoln Riley's offense will present new challenges with the talented Moss under center.
However, the Trojans have struggled to match up in the trenches in Big Ten play, and the Nittany Lions should have a huge advantage at the line of scrimmage.
Do you want to bet on college football?
I expect Penn State's run game to be up against a weak USC run defense, and if Moss has to play from behind, I expect Penn State's run game to be up against a struggling offensive line against a good pass rush. He will always be under pressure from behind.
Best bet: Penn State -4.5 (-108, FanDuel)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
