The Arnold Palmer Invitational opens Thursday in Orlando. This is his fourth signature event of the season on the PGA Tour, and the field will be limited, similar to what we saw at last month’s Genesis Invitational.
Only 69 golfers are scheduled to tee up this week, but capacity is still available. In addition to ties with the top 50, players within 10 strokes of the lead will advance to weekend play.
Bay Hill Club and Lodge, also known as Ernie’s Place, is a favorite destination on the PGA Tour for fans, but it poses many challenges for players.
It has been ranked in the top 10 toughest courses over the past five years. The course is 7,466 yards long and truly wild. A par 72 with a rough and firm green made of thick Bermuda grass.
Several minor changes have been made to the course over the past five years. The fairway is a little wide, which helps long hitters tee off.
Approach shots from the rough make it difficult to stop the ball on the green, so a combination of distance and accuracy from the tee is required. Fairways average 32 yards wide, which is close to what you typically see on the PGA Tour.
Like most courses in Florida, this course is exposed to inclement weather and has water hazards on half of its 18 holes. You can get birdies, but there will be a lot of big numbers on holes with hazards.
Despite the greens being large (7,500 square feet), the field only reached the required 56% clip last year. This is due to a combination of longer approach shots (30% of his shots come from over 200 yards), firm greens, and tricky rough.
Just like major championship golf, every aspect of a golfer’s game will be tested this week. Weaknesses will be exposed, so all-around players should have an advantage over the rest of the field.
It’s also worth noting that Bay Hill has the third most predictable course history on the PGA Tour, behind Augusta National and Riviera Country Club. This means that golfers with good history on the course tend to play well here year after year.
I have four bets on my card this week: two outrights and two placements.
Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets
Odds via FanDuel unless otherwise noted.
Scottie Scheffler wins (+650, can be boosted up to +950 on DraftKings)
If you have DraftKings available, we highly recommend using the full +350 boost. I used it on Scheffler because he can earn up to +950 in an event that the best golfer in the world has won and he finished 4th in the last two years.
Over the past 12 months, Scheffler has led the field in ball strikes, birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, strokes gained per round at Florida, and strokes gained per round on a difficult par-72 course. standing in
He’s hitting the ball as hard as Tiger Woods in his prime. If he makes a decent putt, he’ll probably win the tournament.
I don’t usually bet on favorites, but I couldn’t argue against Scheffler this week.
Cameron Young wins (+2800)
I ended up splitting this bet into two separate bets.
I put half a unit on Young to win at +2800 and half a unit on the winner without Scheffler, McIlroy, or Hovland (Fanduel at +1800).
This bet essentially takes these three players off the leaderboard. In this game, the person with the highest score other than the three players wins. We did this in case Scheffler won and Young came in second.
Young finished T-4 at the Cognizant Classic last week, winning in all four strokes gained categories. Before that, he gained 7.5 strokes in ball striking at the Genesis and 5.4 strokes at the WM Phoenix Open.
He’s finished in the top 15 at this tournament each of the past two years, and his game is trending in the right direction.
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Viktor Hovland Top 5 finish (+360)
+650 If you’re betting on the favorite, it’s hard to justify more outrights because you’re spreading yourself too thin. This week, instead of betting on Hovland to win, we’re betting on him finishing in the top five at odds of +350.
He has been second in the field in strokes gained per round over the past three years at Florida, and has finished T-10 and T-2 in the event the past two years.
He is one of the best drivers in the world, an excellent mid-iron and long-iron player, and plays his best golf on difficult courses.
He hasn’t had a great start this year, but this is a tournament where he needs to shine.
Adam Scott Top 10 finish (+400)
Scott had been crying silently for the past three months. He has competed in seven events around the world but has yet to finish outside the top 20.
During this period, he had five top-10 finishes. More importantly, his ball-striking is starting to resemble Scott’s in his prime. He has gained 14 strokes or more when hitting the ball in the past four tournaments.
He has always had a decent short game, and his putter has become one of his best weapons in recent years.
I like the trends in his game and I like that he has made six of the last seven cuts in this event.
