Potential Russian Provocations at Ukraine’s Borders
WARSAW, Poland – Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk indicated that recent incidents near Ukraine’s borders with Poland and Moldova could signify an escalation in Russian provocations. This assessment was made following two troubling events this week.
On Tuesday night, Russian drones struck the Starokozache border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova, resulting in two fatalities. Then, a serious threat was reported at a Polish-Ukrainian crossing point the following night, which was averted thanks to collaboration between Warsaw and Kyiv.
Tusk, speaking on Thursday, refrained from providing further specifics about the incidents or presenting any evidence linking them to Russia. He noted he received a briefing from CIA Director Jim Ratcliffe, who had recently returned from Moscow and discussed emerging risks in the area.
“Russia has already made the decision to conduct provocative attacks on border crossing points, particularly in Moldova,” Tusk stated during a gathering of Central European nations in Bratislava, Slovakia. “We also anticipate similar actions concerning border crossings with Ukraine in other countries, including Poland.”
Additionally, Tusk mentioned he obtained information from Ratcliffe suggesting that Poland and other European nations should brace for “various scenarios” regarding the ongoing situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front and the broader eastern edge of the EU.
Ukraine shares its borders not only with Poland but also with Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Russia, and Belarus. Recently, Moldova—formerly part of the Soviet Union and now an EU candidate—has been experiencing several incidents near its southern border with Ukraine.
For instance, on August 20, an explosion occurred in a parking area on Ukrainian soil near the Giurgiulesti border crossing, igniting a vegetation fire that spread into Moldova. On the same day, Moldovan border police discovered a crater and drone debris about a kilometer from the boundary—evidence suggesting potential Russian involvement.
The following day, the Mirnoe crossing was temporarily closed due to nearby Russian strikes on Ukraine. On August 25, Moldova halted operations at the Vulcanesti crossing after an Iranian-made Shahed drone targeted the Ukrainian side. Authorities urged citizens to remain calm and find shelter during any drone activity.
After the Starokozache incident, Moldova’s President Maia Sandu condemned Russia, suggesting that its aggression is now posing a threat to Moldova itself. “Denying the danger while Russian drones and missiles inflict harm is a betrayal of your own people’s safety,” she remarked in a Facebook post.
Meanwhile, last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that a border crossing with NATO-member Romania had been “deliberately damaged,” alongside export infrastructure, as Russia has consistently targeted Ukraine’s river ports throughout the ongoing conflict.
Romania has also reported a significant increase in drone incursions this year compared to prior years, marking a concerning trend in regional security. Tusk has been alerting about the likelihood of Russia engaging in limited military or hybrid provocations against Poland or the Baltic states.
He mentioned receiving an updated report from the CIA regarding possible incidents in the coming months—consistent with warnings he has been giving for quite some time.
In late August, Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow raised speculation among Polish officials about discussions related to potential Russian threats to NATO. On Tuesday, Tomasz Siemoniak, Poland’s intelligence chief, met with Ratcliffe at CIA headquarters to discuss Poland’s security and cooperation efforts with the U.S.
This week, an American delegation is visiting Poland to evaluate potential sites for a permanent U.S. military base there. Poland has expressed a long-standing interest in hosting such a base, viewing it as essential for its security amid an escalating Russian threat.
The considerable defense spending and substantial U.S. arms acquisitions by Poland have caught the attention of the Trump administration, which is considering establishing a permanent military base in the country, even as it adjusts its overall military presence in Europe.
