Recent polling indicates that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is slightly ahead of his far-left opponent, James Talarico (D), just weeks before the Texas U.S. Senate election.
A survey from InsiderAdvantage released on Thursday shows Paxton leading Texas State Rep. Talarico by a narrow margin, with 49 percent to 48 percent.
The polling firm did not share further demographic details as of Thursday evening. Still, this marks the second poll in a week showing Paxton moving ahead of Talarico, who has faced criticism for being nearly absent from the campaign trail for two weeks as election day approaches.
Another poll, released Tuesday by Quantus Insights, showed Paxton and Talarico in a very close race, with Paxton at 47.2 percent and Talarico at 46.7 percent.
According to Quantus Insights, Paxton’s slight edge results from Talarico having reached the maximum support from Democrats in Texas. The Tuesday poll indicated Talarico has a strong lead among independent voters, with a 15-point advantage, 52 percent to 37 percent. However, Paxton’s gradual gain in support among Republican voters is keeping him in a favorable position for the seat, as noted by reporter Matt Mercer.
The Cook Political Report now rates the race as a “toss-up,” having changed its classification from “leans Republican” in August. RealClear Polling indicates Talarico has an average lead of 2.3 points, which falls within the margins of error in recent surveys.
Groups aligned with the Republican Party have been aggressively campaigning against Talarico, aiming to retain the seat. On October 1, Axios reported that a Texas PAC associated with the Senate Leadership Fund spent $131 million in September, with more funds expected in October.
Early in-person voting in Texas is set to begin on Monday, October 19.
The InsiderAdvantage poll was conducted with 1,200 likely voters and has a margin of error of ± 2.83 percentage points.
