Poll Shows Tight Race for New Jersey Governor
A recent poll indicates that Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a narrow 5-point lead over Republican Jack Ciatarelli among voters in New Jersey, with the results showing 50% to 45%. This is a decrease from her 8-point advantage noted in late September. When looking specifically at registered voters, her lead has increased slightly to 4 points (48% to 44%) from a previous 7-point gap.
Sherrill’s support is notably strong among black voters, those under 35, women under 45, college-educated individuals, and Hispanic voters. On the other hand, Ciatarelli draws his strongest backing from MAGA supporters, men without college degrees, white men, Catholics, and voters aged 55 to 64.
Interestingly, about 90% of each candidate’s supporters express firm commitment, but Ciatarelli’s backers (69%) demonstrate more enthusiasm about voting than Sherrill’s supporters (64%). There is also a small percentage—around 10%—from each side who might reconsider their choice before election day.
Recent negative campaign tactics seem to have taken a toll on the candidates’ public images. While Sherrill’s rating for honesty remains generally positive, it has dipped since late September. The current figure shows that 52% view her as honest, a 5-point drop from a 16-point margin three weeks prior.
In terms of personal perception, Sherrill’s positive recognition has also decreased. Not long ago, her favorable ratings exceeded unfavorable ones by 10 points, but that margin has tightened to just 2 points now.
Ciatarelli’s favorability ratings have also slipped, though not by as much. His approval dropped from positive territory by 4 points in September to a 2-point decrease today, down 3 points overall compared to last month’s figures.
Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster collaborating with Democrat Chris Anderson on the poll, noted, “While the allegations against Sherrill have hurt her, Ciatarelli is facing scrutiny related to how those records were obtained.” He suggested that Ciatarelli may have gained a slight edge as the campaign shifted.
Both candidates share some common ground in how voters perceive them. For instance, 54% of voters consider Sherrill to be a strong leader, matching a similar sentiment for Ciatarelli. About half of voters feel each candidate can bring about the changes they envision.
There are slight variations in perceptions of empathy, however. Sherrill is seen as caring by 55% of respondents, while 49% feel the same about Ciatarelli.
The primary issues for voters in New Jersey appear to be taxes (34%) and cost of living (19%). Many voters seem to trust Sherrill more with taxes and living costs, with support leaning towards her on energy expenses and healthcare as well.
Support for Ciatarelli remains solid among Republicans at 92%, while Sherrill has 89% backing from Democrats. However, the independent vote is leaning towards Sherrill, who benefits from a higher number of Democrats in New Jersey.
This election is for the seat currently held by Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who won his last race against Ciatarelli by a margin of about three points. Murphy’s approval ratings are notably mixed, with 47% of New Jersey voters viewing him positively and 49% negatively. Additionally, 55% express dissatisfaction with the state’s current situation, which is an improvement from 62% dissatisfaction before his first term.
In previous election cycles, Donald Trump received 41% of the vote in New Jersey in 2016 and slightly improved to 46% in 2020, though he ultimately lost to Kamala Harris in both instances. Currently, 45% of voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 54% who view him unfavorably, marking an increase from 36% approval during his first term.
This polling data, conducted between October 10 and 14, 2025, included responses from 1,002 randomly selected registered voters in New Jersey, with a margin of error of ± 3 percentage points. The approach involved both landline and mobile phone interviews, as well as responses via text link.
