Two weeks after becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, enthusiasm and support for Vice President Kamala Harris has skyrocketed, significantly narrowing the gap in the 2024 election.
Last week, we wrote that Ms Harris was clearly outperforming President Biden, despite the limited data available. Now, new national and state-level polls suggest that assessment may be even more prescient, signaling a much closer election than many had anticipated.
Indeed, national polls underscore how tight the race has become.
According to 10 recent public studiespollPolls conducted after Biden’s withdrawal and compiled by RealClearPolitics show Trump leading by just one point on average, down from three points the day before Harris was sworn in to replace Biden.
Additionally, Harris has a commanding lead over Trump in three recent polls, including:DailyCos/Civics(49 percent to 45 percent)Reuters(43 percent to 42 percent), and Morning consultation(47 percent to 46 percent).
Simply put, what was a one-sided race in the weeks following Biden’s debate has now become a 50-50 situation with Harris’ growing momentum and strength.
In seven battleground states that are likely to decide the election, Harris has effectively erased Trump’s lead, Bloomberg/Morning Consult reported.vote.
Harris leads in all seven states, 48 percent to 47 percent, a statistically-tied margin but three points ahead of Biden, who was trailing Trump by two points (47 percent to 45 percent) before dropping out late last month.
State by state, Harris’ numbers, and her performance over Biden, are even more impressive: In Arizona and Nevada, where Trump had leads over Biden, Harris now leads by 2 points, and in Michigan, her 11-point lead (53 percent to 42 percent) is more than double Biden’s previous lead.
While the top-line numbers certainly suggest it’s a race anyone could win, the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll suggests that the support for Harris could be due to genuine enthusiasm and acceptance of her candidacy that was noticeably absent when Biden was in the lead.
More than four in 10 voters (44%) say Harris’ nomination will make them “greatly” or “somewhat” more likely to vote for them, including nearly two-thirds of Black voters (64%), Gen Z voters (61%) and majorities of Hispanic voters (56%).
Importantly, these constituencies are the core of the Democratic base, and after months of waning enthusiasm for Biden, these groups all appear to be coming back to support Harris.
Across the seven battleground states, Harris leads Trump among black voters (75 percent to 19 percent), voters under 35 (52 percent to 42 percent), Hispanic voters (56 percent to 38 percent) and suburban women (52 percent to 42 percent), according to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.
As a result, Harris’ own personal metrics are also rising.voteHalf of voters (50%) have a favorable view of Harris, a seven-point improvement from two weeks ago, before her campaign began in earnest.
And the percentage of Americans who have an unfavorable view of the vice president has fallen from 51% two weeks ago to 46% now, according to Morning Consult. Note“Harris’ four-point net favorability rating is higher than either Biden or Trump recorded during any previous election cycle.”
Taken together, Harris’ growing support, especially among black and Hispanic voters, and her growing acceptance of her candidacy among the party’s base, give her campaign the opportunity to broaden its tactics and hope to expand its electoral map.
talk The New York TimesCampaign officials recently said they plan to contest “racially diverse Southern states” like Georgia, which Bloomberg/Morning Consult projects will be close races with 47 percent support each.
But it’s important to remember that polls are only momentary records, and Americans have nearly 100 days — an eternity in political terms — until they vote.
Moreover, Harris is undoubtedly benefiting from a honeymoon period and her opponents’ penchant for personal attacks on her race and gender, forcing her to defend the Biden administration’s record rather than attack on issues.
In other words, Trump’s personal attacks on Harris are saving her from a corner and preventing her from laying out her own policy agenda and platform on issues like the economy, immigration, crime prevention and foreign policy.
The more voters focus on Harris’ comments questioning whether the vice president is black, the less time they’ll have to discuss her lack of experience, her controversial comments on policing and criminal justice, and her policies that may be too far to the political left for most voters.
Ultimately, it’s an open question as to whether Harris’ momentum will continue, but polls so far have shown Democrats in a much better position than they were just a month ago, suggesting the presidential race should be very close, rather than a landslide victory.
Douglas E. Shawn and Carly Cooperman are partners and pollsters at Shawn Cooperman Research, a New York-based polling firm. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”
