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Polls prove: Even ‘Teflon Don’ can’t brush off ‘convicted felon’  

When Donald Trump became famous Claimed in 2016 If he had said, “I can shoot somebody and not lose any voters,” I would never have bothered to test whether that scenario was true. The now disgraced former president 34 felony convictions Behind him lies the reality that he is not as free from political influence as he once boasted.

In the two weeks since a New York jury found Trump guilty of forging business documents, a slew of new polls have been released, and none of them are good news for the MAGA faithful. From plummeting support among independents to weakening in key battleground states, the Trump campaign is wrestling with the harsh reality that ordinary people have no interest in being represented by a convicted felon.

Together Tough debate In just 9 days Possible imprisonment With the 2024 presidential election looming next month, Trump is facing the first of several key moments, and as expected, he is handling it all like a man with no strategy — much to Joe Biden’s credit.

Trumpworld remains brutal Morning consultation and Yahoo!News The polls, both conducted days after Trump’s conviction, are the first in weeks to show President Biden leading among voters and also reveal a steep decline in his campaign’s popularity among independents and Republicans he will need to persuade to return to the White House.

The Morning Consult numbers should be a wake-up call for Trump-enslaved Republicans, because 8% of voters who supported Trump in 2020 are backing Biden or another candidate. This may seem like a small margin, but it’s not one that Trump has the luxury of if he wants to win battleground states that are likely to be decided by slim margins.

The Yahoo!News poll also found the same results, with a majority of Americans agreeing that Trump committed a felony in New York, including about 10% of Republicans, many of whom already say they cannot morally justify voting for a convicted felon. This mirrors the findings of another poll. Reuters/IpsosThe survey found that convicting Trump made Republican voters less likely to support him.

If Trump can’t count on his party’s base, he surely doesn’t want to see how bad the numbers get when independent voters enter the debate. Politico/Ipsos Poll A poll released Monday found that one in five independents were less likely to vote for Trump after he was convicted — a figure that, if close to accurate, would undermine Trump’s chances of winning the battleground states he needs to win.

The snowball effect is already happening. Biden is now Trump leads in MichiganBiden narrowly regained a lead in Wisconsin, where he had recently trailed by nearly 4 percentage points. Wisconsin may be the best example of how Trump’s post-conviction weakness could end his presidential hopes: Trump won Wisconsin by one point over Biden in 2016. Less than 1 percentIf disgusted Republicans and alienated independents continue to distance themselves, it is mathematically impossible for Trump to win the Badger State back on his side.

Biden, meanwhile, wants to ensure that Trump remains firmly tied up in his legal troubles. The phrase “convicted felon” is expected to feature prominently in next week’s CNN presidential debate. Trump will almost certainly face tough questions about his growing list of convictions. There’s also the unprecedented possibility that Trump will actually be in prison on the day the Republican Party formally nominates him for president. It’s a situation so real that party officials are developing contingency plans for Trump to accept the nomination. From prisonIt is truly a “law and order” party.

If that wasn’t enough, the Biden campaign is $50 million ad buy They are devoted to reminding voters of Trump’s numerous legal problems. Sexual assault conviction To him $83 million defamation judgment That’s right, 34 felony convictions. It’s going to be the Trump Show for the rest of our lives. It’s just not the Trump Show that Trump would have chosen.

For decades, Trump has boasted a reputation as the “Teflon Don,” an energetic New York businessman who couldn’t get any dirt to stick. His unexpected victory in the 2016 presidential election cemented that image of untouchability in the candidate’s own mind. Now, he faces a new problem: accountability.

As Biden’s first ad reminds us, Character mattersThe American public seems to agree.

Max Burns is a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies.