COLUMBUS, Ohio — Sen. Sherrod Brown, a powerful Democrat from an increasingly red state, is on Ohio's endangered species list. And two new polls showing Mr. Brown trailing his Republican opponent for the first time this term may mean he is in more danger than expected. .
of acti vote The poll, conducted among 400 likely voters from August 16 to September 22, found Brown's Republican opponent, businessman Bernie Moreno, with a 2.2 point lead, 51.1% to 48.9%. Leading.
Another poll is: RMG ResearchThe survey surveyed 781 likely voters between September 18th and 20th. The survey also showed Mr. Moreno with a 2 point lead, 48% to Mr. Brown's 46%.
Both polls show the race within the margin of error, with the ActiVote poll at +/- 4.9 points and the RMG poll at 3.5 points.
The Ohio Senate race has been considered a close race from the start, but polls before this data showed Brown holding a 3-5 point lead. The average RealClearPolitics poll gives Brown a 3.8 point advantage.
“This is terrible,” the Ohio Democratic Party said in a campaign fundraising email shortly after the poll results were released. “We can't let Bernie Moreno get any more support than he already has, unless we want to keep the Senate on board.”
Analysts say Moreno's sudden rise is likely due to three main factors.
- Donald Trump: Mr. Trump has widened his lead over Kamala Harris in Ohio, where the RCP average is 50% to 44%, and Mr. Moreno is likely to boost the vote against the former president.
- inflation: Moreno's message focuses on job creation, tax cuts and higher wages for Ohio workers. The economy is No.1 That matters to Ohio voters, and Mr. Moreno has made Mr. Brown the face of inflation in the state.
- Immigration: Even before Springfield made national headlines, immigration was a top-three issue for Ohioan. Moreno supports President Trump's mass deportation plan and has made immigration reform a pillar of his campaign.
Mr. Brown's loss would be another blow to Ohio's status as a battleground state that is increasingly electing Republicans at the state and federal level, but which has been in question for years.
Republicans control all three branches of state government, as well as the offices of secretary of state, attorney general, and treasurer.
Brown's historically strong poll numbers and Ohio's recent push to pass left-leaning ballot measures, such as legalizing marijuana, mean the state hasn't completely lost to Democrats. However, this good news for Mr. Moreno is yet another blow to the Blue Party.
“Sherrod Brown sold out his working-class base to toe the Democratic line,” said Philip Retzow, a spokesman for the House Republican campaign arm.
“He is in line with Chuck Schumer and Kamala Harris, voting for open borders, higher taxes, and anti-worker green energy policies.”Now, after more than 50 years in politics, Mr. Voters are ready to send Mr. Brown home.”
Moreno and Brown's campaigns declined to comment on the matter.
