As Berlin grapples with ongoing economic challenges, the opposition party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained a notable lead over the ruling coalition, marked by a significant widening of their margin.
Recent polling from Insa indicates that support for the AfD has risen to 29%, a modest increase of half a point from the previous week. In contrast, backing for the governing Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) in Bavaria has declined by a whole point to 20.5%.
This shift means there’s now an 8.5-point gap—the largest ever noted by this polling organization between the anti-mass immigration AfD and its competitors, as reported by die welt.
On the other hand, the CDU’s coalition partner, the Social Democrats, experienced a slight bump to 13%, equal to the Greens and slightly ahead of Die Linke (Left), which stands at 10.5%.
This coalition, identified as the Red and Black alliance, currently holds a combined support of 33.5%, dropping nearly 12 points since the last election in 2025, and is just over 4 points ahead of the AfD’s numbers.
Typically, conservative parties in Europe, including Merz’s CDU, have refrained from allying with the Far-right AfD, opting instead to partner with the left-leaning Social Democrats, who suffered losses in the polls. The AfD finds this alliance politically unacceptable, mainly due to its staunch anti-immigration and Eurosceptic positions.
However, the historical strategy of the leading parties to create a “firewall” against the AfD seems to be backfiring, as current trends suggest that populist parties could soon eclipse the combined support of the CDU and SPD. This situation might force the Prime Minister into a potential agreement with far-left groups to maintain his position.
The decline in the government’s approval ratings aligns with a growing dissatisfaction among the German populace towards Chancellor Merz. Current data from the RTL/NTV Trend Barometer shows only 14% of voters expressing satisfaction with him, while a striking 85% are not pleased—marking a record low.
The government’s struggles can be linked to the ongoing economic difficulties affecting the European Union, which has faced declining performance after disruptions, particularly following the pandemic and the cessation of affordable energy supplies from Russia amidst geopolitical tensions.
Adding to this challenge, energy shortages are coinciding with the phase-out of nuclear power initiated by former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had environmental concerns following the Fukushima disaster in 2011.
As energy costs rise, Germany’s manufacturing sector faces increasing pressure to compete internationally.
Germany’s economy has also suffered from additional tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump on EU goods. According to an investigation by Munich’s Ifo Institute, about 60% of German companies reported adverse impacts from these tariffs, a figure that escalates to 74% for the vital auto sector.
In response to these tariffs, many companies are raising prices, which can hinder their competitiveness. Alarmingly, at least a quarter of those surveyed stated they were compelled to absorb these costs themselves.
