A few years ago, I asked learned members of Congress what they thought would happen to Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Former President Trump took office and began criticizing Kentucky Republicans. McConnell was the majority leader at the time. Trump launched a verbal attack on McConnell, imploring him to shred the Senate filibuster.
The senator knew McConnell well. But it was questionable whether Mr. Trump would be able to touch Mr. McConnell.
“Mitch is hungry for power,” the congressman said. “He’s never going to leave. They have to get him out of here in a pine box.”
Addison Mitchell McConnell has no plans to leave the Senate. still. The political fortune tellers’ predictions may yet come true. McConnell will remain in the Senate at least until the end of his term in January 2027.
A crowd of candidates to replace McConnell appears in the Senate
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) recently announced that he would step down as minority leader. (J. Scott Applewhite)
Anyone who aspires to a senior leadership position in Congress is certainly power-hungry to some degree.
But political power is volatile. Free to change. It fluctuates. And those who have power today may not necessarily be able to wield it tomorrow.
Especially on Capitol Hill.
It’s unclear where Mr. McConnell ranks on Congress’s scale of measuring the pursuit of power in Washington. McConnell is joined by the late Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield, D-Mont., Joseph Robinson, R-Ark. He achieved power as the longest-serving Senate majority leader of either party. -Key.
But like everyone else, McConnell had no superpowers, just powers.
And everyone lacks the strength to stay in power.
Mitch McConnell resigns as Republican leader
“I turned 82 last week. The end of my contribution is closer than I would have liked,” McConnell said. “Father Time remains undefeated.”
“I turned 82 last week. The end of my contribution is closer than I would have liked,” McConnell said. (Drew Angerer)
Time hasn’t really caught up with McConnell. It just means that time has passed. This made it even more difficult to maintain that power. Factors began to multiply. Everything is working against McConnell.
Time and age began to take their toll on McConnell. His health was there. A nasty fall last year saw McConnell absent from the Senate for six weeks. McConnell has since experienced several episodes in which he freezes up in public and appears unable to speak.
Even though McConnell had secretly decided to retire from office at the end of this Congress, whispers began to circulate in the Senate hallways that McConnell’s term as Republican leader was nearing.
Former President Trump resumed his tirade against McConnell, especially pushing for a new Republican leader if the former president returns to the White House.
But the former president’s rhetoric did not oust McConnell. Those were symptoms. The Republican Party has changed over time. Just as grains of sand slipped through an hourglass, so did McConnell’s grains of power. slowly. Systematically. But I’m sure.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has announced his candidacy for minority leader. (J. Scott Applewhite)
McConnell said he arrived at the Capitol early in President Ronald Reagan’s second term. McConnell said he didn’t know the new senator from the Bluegrass state well, but Zipper called Mitch “O’Donnell.” Now, McConnell leaves former President Trump calling him “Old Crow.”
McConnell has embraced the avian nickname. Like McConnell, Henry Clay was one of Kentucky’s other great politicians, having previously served as Speaker of the House and as a senator. As McConnell likes to say, Old Crow was Clay’s favorite bourbon. McConnell said he was honored that Trump compared him to Clay.
But in recent years, a new “MAGA” type of senator has come to Capitol Hill. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Sen. J.D. Vance. (R-Ohio) and Sen. Eric Schmidt (R-Missouri) They are not aligned with Mr. McConnell. In fact, a senior Senate Republican leader told Fox that some Republican senators are tired of the so-called “MAGA show” that takes place every Tuesday at the party’s weekly conference lunch.
Sen.John Cornyn announces candidacy for minority leader after McConnell resigns
And therein lies the problem for McConnell, whose power has waned.
Like everything on Capitol Hill, it’s about math.
In recent years, there has been no better measure of Mr. McConnell’s declining power than the exercise over the international aid package that later became an international aid package with a border security plan. Then it returned to the international aid bill.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) arrives at the Capitol in Washington on Wednesday, October 6, 2021, as a showdown with Democrats over raising the debt ceiling looms. (J. Scott Applewhite)
Mr. McConnell specifically wanted to promote foreign funding programs for Ukraine. But Mr. McConnell calculated that strong border security measures would further enrich his plan and satisfy members of the conference. That turned out to be the wrong decision. Support for his border plan wanes. And the bill went back to being just international security.
Mr. McConnell wanted a majority of Republican senators to support the final product. That’s 25 of the 49 Republican senators. McConnell had 22 points.
It’s not because McConnell stumbles. That’s because the Republican Party has moved on from where it would have been a few years ago. A political seismic shift occurred. And the vote on the international aid bill became a barometer of McConnell’s strength.
McConnell grasped the political transition. His power may be fading. McConnell’s greatest strength was his understanding of power. It never left him.
“Trust me, I know the party politics at this particular moment,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. “I have many flaws, but misunderstanding politics is not one of them.”
Who will be McConnell’s successor?
It is too early to predict where another power center will emerge to decide who will succeed Mr. McConnell as the top Republican in the Senate. Such a political world does not even exist yet. Yes, for now, look at the three Johns: Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R.S.D.), former Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas), and Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Thune (R.D.). Barrasso (R-Wyo.). Someone like Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) could also participate. A source told Fox that Cotton is interested in race.
WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 28: Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) speaks after the Republican Policy Luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on March 28, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Kevin Dietch)
But I don’t understand much else.
We must first know who will win the presidential election. And if 2024 is anything like his 2020, it may take some time. If the winner is delayed, the secret internal leadership election that Senate Republicans are scheduled to hold in mid-to-late November could be postponed. But the winner of the presidential election will determine who the Republican Party wants — especially if former President Trump wins and has anything to say about it.
Another factor is which party controls the Senate and the number of seats it holds. Keep in mind that he didn’t know until January 2021 which party would control the Senate after the 2020 elections.
That’s why other numbers may emerge. Especially dark horses.
As I have written before, parliamentary leadership elections are not “partisan politics” but “partisan politics”. The factors that determine who assumes leadership are determined at the subatomic political level. So we don’t know who will win. Consider how former House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) won an upset victory in 2006 to become House Majority Leader. Or consider how former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) won the job even though he said he wasn’t interested. And, as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said in September, who could have predicted what was in store?
A dark horse may emerge.
Imagine if Republicans won with a real majority in November. In that case, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) could be a candidate. Daines heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the campaign arm of the Republican Party. Mr. Daines has done many right things in the past in high-stakes political battles. If Republicans win the Senate by a large margin, some members, especially new members, may take notice of Daines.
en. Steve Daines, R-Mont., spoke to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation entitled “Passenger and Freight Rail: Current Status and Future Trajectory of the Rail Network” in the Russell Building on Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020. testified at the public hearing. (Tom Williams)
This fall will be someone’s era. I just don’t know who it is.
McConnell spent more than 17 years on Capitol Hill.
And now that’s not the case.
Father Time is undefeated.
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And power is elusive. constantly deteriorating.
Political leaders are powerful. But they are powerless.
