Polymarket, which bills itself as “the world’s largest prediction market,” gave former President Donald Trump a 94 percent chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee as of Monday afternoon.
a snap shot Projections Monday afternoon gave Trump a 94 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee in the 2024 election. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley received just 4%, with 3% choosing “other.” One percent each went to entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who withdrew from the Republican primary and endorsed Trump.
Related — Endorsed! Vivek withdraws from campaign, backs Trump ‘fully’
Interestingly, confidence that Trump will be the Republican nominee is higher than confidence that President Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee, with the latter receiving 85 percent, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom with 6 percent. %, with former first lady Michelle Obama at 5%. . Current projections are for Congressman Dean Phillis (D-Minn.) to have an approval rating of 3% and for Vice President Kamala Harris to be at 2%.
But the predictions don’t end there. Current predictions show an 82% chance that Biden and Trump will face off, but 55% believe Trump will win in the 2024 presidential election, followed by 39% for Biden, 2% for Newsom, and 2% for Haley. is 1%, and Mr. Robert F. is 1%. .Kennedy Jr.:
.@polymarket – 2024 Election:
Republican candidate:
Trump 95% (+91)
Haley 4%
.
Democratic candidate:
Biden 85% (+79)
Newsom 6%
obama 5%
Phillips 3%https://t.co/ifkXXe8hDH pic.twitter.com/fzHP6IxAGp— Political polls (@Politics_Polls) January 28, 2024
The prediction comes as Haley charges into the race, refusing to drop out after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire. Her campaign has made clear that she will rely on non-conservatives in states with primaries to help her moving forward.
…and rely on the Independent:
— Philippe Melanchthon Wegmann (@PhilipWegmann) January 23, 2024
