Predictions for the college football national championship: Choosing one favorite and one underdog for the 2026 title

Predictions for the college football national championship: Choosing one favorite and one underdog for the 2026 title

College Football Season Kickoff

Well, folks, we made it. After an offseason filled with what seemed like endless legal battles and some congressional debates, the college football season is finally upon us. We’re talking about real games, where the ball of leather actually meets the toe, and the journey toward the College Football Playoff National Championship Game in Las Vegas on January 25 is officially underway.

This marks the third year of the 12-team format for the CFP, and so far, the Big Ten has really taken the lead. Ohio State is viewed as the top contender for the championship in 2024. They fell short in the quarterfinals last year, but they’re starting this season strong with a deep roster that includes standout wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Following closely is Indiana, which has pulled off an astonishing two-year turnaround with a perfect 16-0 record. They do have some big shoes to fill—like that of Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, who’s now in the NFL—but head coach Curt Cignetti has brought in some promising talent to keep the momentum going for a possible repeat. And let’s not forget Oregon, which is also gunning for its first national title with Heisman candidate Dante Moore at quarterback.

The continued dominance of Big Ten teams is stirring some frustration in SEC territory, and there are several teams eager to reclaim the top spot. Georgia is in a solid position after last year’s quarterfinal exit, while Texas is going all out with projected No. 1 draft pick Arch Manning entering his senior year. LSU has been the talk of the offseason, keeping all eyes on Lane Kiffin’s squad, while Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas A&M aim to build on their playoff runs from last year.

However, the race for the title isn’t just a two-league affair; several teams on the outside are ready to take a stab at the crown. Notre Dame, with coach Marcus Freeman at the helm, has a point to prove after missing the playoffs last season. Then there’s Miami, which lost a close title game to Indiana, looking for that edge to succeed this year—especially with the addition of Darian Mensah. Even without Brendan Sorsby, Texas Tech has enough defensive talent to challenge in the Big 12 and make a mark in the playoff as well.

2026 CFP National Championship Odds

TeamOdds
Ohio State+550
Notre Dame+600
Georgia+700
Oregon+750
Texas+800
Indiana+850
Miami+1200
Texas Tech+2200
Oklahoma+2200
LSU+2500
Ole Miss+2500
Texas A&M+2500
Alabama+2500
USC+3500
Michigan+4500
Tennessee+5500
Florida+5500
BYU+8000
Washington+8000
Penn State+8000
Auburn+10000
Missouri+10000
South Carolina+10000
Louisville+12500
SMU+12500
Clemson+17500
Utah+17500
Iowa+20000
Vanderbilt+20000
Virginia Tech+22500

Last season, Texas went from being the top team in the AP poll to ending the year disappointed and watching the CFP from home with a 10-3 record. To avoid a repeat, Steve Sarkisian and his team have gone all in, assembling a roster that might see four players drafted in the top 10 of next year’s NFL Draft.

Arch Manning is back, now with experience as a starter, and he’s got even more talent around him with new arrivals like Cam Coleman, Hollywood Smothers, and Raleek Brown, plus potential top tackle Trevor Goosby on the offensive line. On defense, All-American Colin Simmons is set to create havoc once again after a 12-sack season last year, and he’s being mentored by Will Muschamp, the new defensive coordinator.

Texas will need to navigate a challenging SEC schedule before they can even think about the CFP, facing off against tough teams like Ohio State and Notre Dame. Given the talent and depth they’ve built for this season, I genuinely believe they have a solid chance of making a deep run.

Of course, there are many familiar teams that could emerge as sleepers, including LSU, Ole Miss, USC, and Michigan. Any of these could make a case for a significant playoff run. Just a reminder—Ole Miss almost made the semifinals last season right after their head coach switched sides to a rival! Speaking of teams that are just on the edge of the national scene, let’s take a closer look at Dallas.

SMU has been quietly impressive since moving up to the ACC in 2024. They finished as runners-up and qualified for the CFP in their first year, just falling short of another conference title last season. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is back for his third year and has a strong lineup around him, with All-ACC tackle PJ Williams strengthening an experienced offensive line. Their defense is also looking promising, ranked in the top 30 in early preseason rankings—providing a good balance for head coach Rhett Lashlee.

The Mustangs, notably, face only two matchups against teams currently in the top 25: a road game against No. 2 Louisville on September 24 and another against No. 4 Notre Dame on November 21. If they can establish some momentum early in the season, that late-game against the Fighting Irish could be a decisive moment for them, potentially elevating them into serious contender status. It’s worth keeping an eye on the Pony Express this season.

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