The MLB season is often dependent on the weather, and it’s never as prevalent as it is during the first month.
This trend has strengthened this week with multiple postponements across the league.
The Tigers and Mets will once again deal with weather issues Thursday after being postponed each of the past two days. They are planning a doubleheader, but it will be difficult to play two games.
Mother Nature is also threatening the Pirates-Nationals matchup, and there are three games left that seem safe to target on PricePicks.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite predictions to attack this little Thursday slate.
Tanner Bibby (Guardians vs. Twins) pitcher with fewer than 6.5 strikeouts.
Bibby is a well above average starting pitcher. However, he struggled mightily in his first start of the season.
He had an unusually wild game against the Athletics, giving up five walks in just four innings. He threw 89 pitches and recorded four strikeouts, a spot he should have dominated against one of the weakest offensive lines in baseball.
On Thursday, Bibby will face the Twins, who had the league’s highest strikeout rate last season. That’s the only reason this prediction is so high, but considering he had control issues in the opener, it’s too hard to trust him.
In addition to his recent form, you have to consider that Bibby only posted a slightly above-average strikeout rate of 24.1% in 2023. This is his best strikeout duel, but he only exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in eight of his 25 starts last season.
The Twins have a much more potent offense than the Athletics, so Bybee will need to be sharper than he was in his last start to even have a chance of beating this projection.
Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals vs. White Sox) Hitter Fantasy Score 8.5 or higher
The Royals shortstop took a big leap forward in 2023 after a solid but understated rookie season. He improved his wRC+ from 98 in 2022 to 115 last season.
Just 23 years old, Witt was drafted No. 2 overall in 2019 and seems intent on fulfilling the potential that ranked him as one of the most promising players even before his debut.
The 2024 season is off to a strong start for the five-tool Witt, who has multi-hit in four of the six games he has played so far. He has already racked up seven extra-base hits and two stolen bases.
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On Thursday night, he will face Mike Soroka, a White Sox bullpen that is projected to be one of the worst in the league. Soroka struggled in his first start of the season, allowing seven hits and four runs in just five innings.
Witt has multiple ways to score fantasy points given his power and speed profile. He has a projected 8.5 fantasy score in four of his six games to start 2024.
Willson Contreras (Cardinals vs. Marlins) Fantasy score of 6.5 or higher
The Cardinals got off to a rough start despite being favorites to win the division heading into the season.
However, they started the season on the road against the Dodgers and Padres, two tough opponents in the National League West, and have been plagued by multiple injuries.
Their best hitter so far in the young season is Contreras.
The former Cubs catcher got off to a rocky start after signing with the Cardinals as a free agent in 2023, but eventually bounced back and put together a great season with a 127 wRC+. He was particularly good against left-handed pitchers, posting an ISO of .241 and his wOBA of .398.
On Thursday, he will face Marlins left-hander Ryan Weathers, who had a strikeout rate of just 14.5% against right-handed hitters in 2023. Weathers also had a 1.89 HR/9 last season and has yet to live up to his potential. They made him a first-round draft pick.
Considering his success against left-handed pitchers last season, Contreras has a fairly low bar to clear here, even against young pitchers who haven’t yet found success in the major leagues.
