Pure Hedge – Cattle and Crops

11/20/25

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If you’re not satisfied with the service you’re getting from your broker, remember, you have choices. Moving your funds or setting up a new account can be straightforward.

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I’ll be in Amarillo, Texas from December 1st to the 5th. If you’d like to connect, let me know.

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Today saw a decline across all livestock markets, particularly in feeders, which dropped over $5. The February 2026 Live Cattle price decreased by 1.85, finishing at 215.40. Today’s high was 218.80, while the one-month high stood at 246.85. The low today reached 213.77 ½, marking a one-month low as well. Since November 20, live cattle have fallen by 29.12 ½ or nearly 12%. January 2026 feeders also saw a decline. They dropped 5.07 1/2 today, settling at 316.37 1/2, with today’s high at 323.42 1/2 and a one-month high at 371.40. The low for the day was 314.75, while the one-month low hit 310.05. Since November 20, January ’26 feeder cattle have decreased by 52.80, over 14%. On a different note, hogs traded higher today, with February 2026 Leanhogs climbing 62.5 cents to settle at 79.65 cents. The day’s high reached 80.22 1/2, and the one-month high stood at 86.37 1/2. Notably, since February 20, 2026, Lean Pig is down 5.07 ½ or just under 6%. The trend in the cattle market appears to continue downward, suggesting there might be about $10.00 of further decline left in the feeder market. Both fats and feeders are currently below the 50% retracement from the previous year’s high and low levels, with February 2026 fats hitting a new one-month low today at 213.77 1/2. The monthly low for Feeders in January 2016 is 310.05, with the 200-day moving average at 309.51 1/2. It seems we could see trading through these levels towards the 305 area. Personally, I’m staying short on feeder lines, anticipating further declines after the reopening announcement of the southern border. However, with President Trump’s strong focus on that reopening, it seems it could happen sooner rather than later. There’s a cattle feed report due tomorrow, which might bring unexpected news. Whenever dates for border reopening are confirmed, I plan to buy into the cattle market before it closes that day, anticipating competition after the announcement. I’d love to collaborate on future cattle markets. If you have questions or want to meet in Amarillo, let’s talk.

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Now might be the right time to open an account before another month goes by – just six weeks left in this year. Providing your information will give you immediate access to valuable market insights.

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The importance of having a trading account for successful business operations cannot be overstated. Observing market movements over the last three months can prove essential. If you wait until later to open an account, you might miss crucial access to real-time market data. Being proactive is key to managing risks effectively. It’s possible to stay prepared while being patient at the same time. Stay tuned for trade deal updates.

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With Walsh Trading, I’ve put together a skilled team of five professionals who are leaders in the field. Reach out, and we’ll illustrate how the Pure Hedge division can contribute positively to your bottom line.

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All grain markets took a dip today, with pulses leading the downturn. January ’26 Soybean prices didn’t perform well, ending just a penny above the day’s low. They fell by 13 ¾ cents today, settling at 1122 ¾ cents. Today’s high was 1142 ¾, while the one-month and contract high was 1169 ¾. The low today reached 1,121.5, with a one-month low of 1,044.5. Since November 20, soybeans have risen by 72.5 cents, nearly 7%. Meanwhile, March 26 Corn also saw a decline, dropping 3 ¾ cents to settle at 437 ¾. The day’s high was 443 ¾, with a month’s high of 457. The low touched 436 ¾, and the month low stood at 432 ½. Since November 20, corn is only up by 0.75 cents. Wheat also struggled, falling nearly 10 cents, settling down 8¾ cents at 540¾ cents. The high today was 555 ¾, while the month’s high was 568. The low hit 539 ¾ with a one-month low of 514 ½. Since November 20, wheat increased by 19 1/4 cents, about 4%. Lately, grain markets have shown some growth with expectations of China purchasing soybeans. There are just six weeks left this year, and even if China proceeds to buy 12 tons of soybeans, it seems that’s already accounted for in the market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see soybeans push toward the 1080 level come March ’26. Just recently, I purchased a put for 12 cents on a March 26 1080, which settled today at 18.5 cents. Brazil is ramping up its soybean planting, and planting is already in progress. The expected soybean planting in the U.S. next year is projected to rise by 4%, but still remain below historical averages even if China holds up its purchase agreement for 25 tons per year over three years. Right now, I’d recommend hedging wherever possible. Locking in a good price now can yield benefits, particularly if you expect government payments. Using OTC structured products to hedge could help maximize your sales price. If you’re interested, I’m happy to explain further. Currently, livestock and grain markets are at favorable levels for placing new positions, especially through options to extend profit potential. But, of course, there’s inherent risk in every decision. If you’d like to discuss this, give me a call.

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Why I Remain Optimistic About Soybean Oil Despite Today’s Biofuel Speculation.

Here’s my take on soybean oil. Supplies for palm oil are tight, and export restrictions might be on the horizon next year. The Indonesian government is clearly concerned about supply, as they’ve taken control over some palm oil-producing lands. Additionally, production and export supplies of sunflower oil are projected to decline, leading to rising prices that make soybean oil more appealing. Sunflower oil availability is already limited, and decreased production in parts of Europe, Russia, and Ukraine will restrict the amount of crushed sunflower seeds, allowing cheaper soybean oil to regain favor. Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia are likely to increase their biofuel shares, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see domestic mixes boosted too. With most Argentine soybeans already going to China, their crushing capacity is likely to be limited as well. All these factors suggest a significant potential for price increases within the soybean oil market. I continue to invest in soybean oil futures spreads and options spreads.