In a surprising turn of events, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be gaining an upper hand. It’s not about the battlefield in Ukraine, but rather about the broader geopolitical landscape reminiscent of World War I.
In Ukraine, his beleaguered army remains mired in a stalemate, three and a half years into his so-called special military operation, which has led to 1.1 million casualties. Yet, despite this static situation, he appears to be making headway in other arenas.
Putin’s overarching aim seems clear: to undermine U.S. global dominance and dismantle the post-World War II order. This shift threatens NATO and highlights the ineffectiveness of the UN Security Council in maintaining global peace. Surprisingly, this has led to the rise of both Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in what could be termed a multipolar world.
The recent meeting in China on September 1 provided a revealing look into this new world order, where over 20 prominent global figures gathered at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, backed by both China and Russia.
Notably, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico were present. Fico’s participation is particularly striking, given that he represents a NATO member state. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is a significant purchaser of Russian oil, also joined as part of a coalition formed back in 2017.
In stark contrast, the U.S. and its European allies were conspicuously absent.
Further complicating matters, Beijing presented a concept paper titled “Global Governance Initiative,” outlining plans for a new world order aimed at creating a fairer and more equitable governance system. This initiative, reminiscent of the Atlantic Charter established in 1941, seemingly positions China as the nucleus of a new global structure.
Although the document professes support for the current international system, it’s evident that Xi aims to usurp its role.
Putin appears to be an active player in this reconfiguration, as he collaborates with Xi in a broader ideological war against the West. The conflict extends beyond Ukraine, encompassing actions in NATO countries like Poland and Romania, where Putin and Xi seem intent on dismantling what they view as Western hegemony.
Putin’s key strategy appears to be fracturing NATO solidarity. Recent drone activity in Poland serves as a loud reminder for the West to reconsider its support for Ukraine.
Thus far, since the war’s inception, Putin has mostly utilized hybrid warfare against Europe. This method has included various tactics: cyber attacks, election interference, and even attempts to sabotage cargo flights, all aimed at destabilizing NATO.
This situation isn’t merely a cause for debate; real action from NATO is required. I mean, a no-fly zone in western Ukraine might be a starting point. However, Washington and its allies often leave Putin’s advantage unchallenged.
Take Romania, a NATO ally, which recently decided against downing a Russian drone. Instead, their F-16s simply escorted it back to Ukraine. Allowing Russian military drones such free reign through NATO airspace is concerning.
It feels like the U.S. is inadvertently granting Putin a form of victory. President Biden’s hesitant approach toward Ukraine often seems like an unforced error, allowing Russia to gain the upper hand.
The Trump administration also made questionable choices, like withdrawing from initiatives aimed at combating Russian disinformation. Now, effective AI tools are being exploited to shape narratives on social media platforms.
Moreover, a poorly considered decision to stop holding Putin accountable for war crimes has only emboldened him, seemingly encouraging further transgressions.
Putin continues to exploit immigration to destabilize Eastern NATO countries. Recent reports indicate a troubling uptick in flights facilitating this kind of disruption, further stressing the need for a concerted response.
Recognizing Russian influence without strong American leadership may embolden others, fostering an environment ripe for conflict.
America finds itself in a precarious position, and it’s time to take a stand. The silent suffering of many must not continue unchecked.
To gain the initiative, Trump should align with military and intelligence leaders to form a robust strategy. Neglecting Ukraine’s defense risks not just a Russian victory, but potentially a Chinese one as well.
In the end, losing to Putin equates to losing to Xi. If this happens, China could emerge as the sole victor.
