Last week’s newsoutlet reportinMiserableThe significance of Russian President Putin’s visit to North Korea is that Chairman Kim Jong Un and hundreds of thousands of North Koreans came together to welcome him. A new alliance was born.
North Korea is not only supplying Russia with missiles and large amounts of artillery shells for its war with Ukraine, Iran They also shipped drones to Russia. And of course, President Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have already announcedUnlimited“partnership.
One predictable outcome is that the United States will be surprised and overreact to Russian and Chinese efforts. With sanctions and other obstacles limiting Russia’s ability to wage war, it would be shortsighted to think that Russia will accept the status quo and not explore other options.
Before returning to the new Moscow-Pyongyang steel deal, it is important to observe an example of this default overreaction setting.
Two weeks ago, a task force of four Russian naval vessels was en route to Cuba, traditional and social media reported.caveatThese ships were sailing within 100 miles of the Florida coast.
However, a closer look at the task force was warranted: of the four ships, one was a fleet tugboat, one was a supply ship, one was the frigate Gorshkov (named after a former commander of the Soviet Navy), and the last was a Yasen-class nuclear cruise missile submarine. Kazanwas photographed in messy conditions.
The reason for the tow and supply ships is clear: Russian warships TrustworthyUkraine’s sinking of numerous ships, immobilization of wharves, and defenselessness in Crimea and the Black Sea are telling. we There were nuclear submarines in Guantanamo at the time, but was anyone interested in getting past the media soundbites?
President Putin’s visits to Pyongyang and Vietnam were huge strategic blunders and great signs of weakness.
First, the fact that Kim Jong Un did not go to Moscow and that Putin, the leader of a military superpower, visited instead may have been well received by the Russian public, but it does not hide a crucial reality: To fight in Ukraine, Russia is dependent on Kim Jong Un’s generosity. This is astonishing.
Second, Beijing reactionBeijing is North Korea boiling Something that could explode geographically in your armpit. China has Kim Jong Un Unpredictableand his possessions nuclear weapons This is not reassuring, it is downright terrifying – it is in no way on par with the nuclear weapons of the UK or France, which are closely allied with the US or NATO.
Third, what happens if Pyongyang loses its ability to remain a viable arms supplier in the long term? If the Ukrainian war is not resolved, where will Moscow turn next? This is not a trivial question.
What should the US and NATO do about this, especially with the Washington summit celebrating the revival of the alliance approaching? 75th BirthdayAs a first step, the alliance should take a step back, start from basic principles, and consider its overall geopolitical, economic, and military balance with Russia.
NATO Their combined GDP is about $45 trillion, of which $25 trillion comes from the U.S. Russia’s GDP is about $2.24 trillion, about one-twentieth of NATO’s. Russia’s population is about 140 million and declining. NATO has well over 900 million citizens.
NATO The combined annual defense budget is about $1.3 trillion, with the U.S. accounting for just under $900 billion. Russia’s defense budget is about $130 billion, less than one-tenth of NATO’s.
In every area of military power, except for tactical and non-strategic nuclear weapons, NATO has overwhelming numerical and qualitative superiority, and in addition to the United States, the United Kingdom and France also possess nuclear weapons.
To balance the books, NATO is made up of 32 member states that don’t necessarily agree on many issues, which means it has 31 different armies and ministries of defense. Iceland There is no military, so the disparity may not be as pronounced as it seems.
However, NATO has many advantages, including its geographic location that surrounds Russia. Finland and Sweden This would open up a northern strategic front that would disrupt Russia for over 800 miles and give greater access to the Baltic Sea, challenging Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg.
The US and NATO need to take a closer look at the potential for overreaction to Russia and take stock – and NATO has vast resources to draw on – so hopefully the summit in Washington will do just that.
Dr. Harlan Ullman is a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council and lead author of “Shock and Awe” Military Doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How a Massive Disruption Attack Became a Looming Existential Crisis for a Divided Nation and the Entire World‘ is available for purchase on Amazon.
