The Defense Industry Report, claiming that Russia has requested a permanent base in Indonesia’s remote Papua region at Australia’s northern gateway, sent Canberra to Tailspin. However, in Indonesia, the frenzy was surprised by Australia’s close election campaign.
Foreign policy and defense experts are very skeptical of the prospect that Jakarta will acquiesce to such Russian demands, and moreover, it is nothing new. For half a century, Moscow has been seeking a permanent foundation for planes at Biak Airfield, Indonesia, Papua.
There are no foreign powers with military bases in Indonesia and there is no permanent access to their domestic bases. Indonesia has disgraced the constitution’s commitment to a “free and independent” foreign policy.
“probability [of accepting a Russian request] said Rahman Yaakob, defense expert at the Australian Roy Institute. “The main reason is due to Indonesia’s domestic and foreign policy, and it is basically inconsistent.”
Gatra Priyandita of the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy (ASPI) agreed that it “contraries the principle that it essentially does not provide military bases to external forces overseas.”
But prospects are stimulating their appetite. Indonesia is a vast archipelago that spans Southeast Asia. The Papua region is the gateway to the Pacific Ocean, with Biak Air Force Base just 1,300 km from Darwin in northern Australia where the US has its military base.
Russia continues this week with an economic overture. Indonesian President Prabobo Suboant welcomed Russia’s first vice-prime minister, Dennis Manturov, to Jakarta, discussing free trade and marked diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1975.
Matthew Sussex, a visiting fellow at Australian National University, said President Vladimir Putin hopes Russia will become “the power of the Euro-Pacific.”
“From a Russian perspective, they will have strategic toes in Southeast Asia. “However, they will extend towards an increasingly important US base in the Northern Territory and potentially enter the Indian Ocean west and west.”
Biac is also close to the Philippines and is our closest ally in the region.
Another possible reason for Russia’s interest in Biak is that it is close to the equator, which helps with space management. Indonesia plans to build a satellite launch site there, and Russia is trying to negotiate to engage with Indonesia, Roy’s Yaakob said. Because the airfield is so rudimentary, experts say it makes more sense as a site for launching low-Earth orbital satellites and high-altitude long-lasting drones.
“But the negotiations were slow. I understand that Indonesia says no, but this is a way to say no and drag the negotiations out,” he said.
Trump’s Factor
It’s also a matter of timing. When Donald Trump’s administration questioned the postwar world order, it’s ripe for Russia to approach Indonesian partners and its entire Southeast Asia.
Indonesia and Russia held their first joint naval training last year, with President Prabowo Suboant visiting Moscow in October last year. In February this year, Sergei Shuig, secretary of the Russian Federation’s Security Council, visited Jakarta to discuss the depths of its defense.
Indonesia recently joined the BRICS group, a founding member of Russia. Trade between Russia and Indonesia has increased by 80% over the past five years. The Russian government reportsreached $4.3 billion in 2024.
However, the world’s fourth most populous country and the largest economy in Southeast Asia is far from becoming the next client nation for Russia or another country.
At best, some say Russia may stop making concessions, as it was granted access to Biak for about five days in 2017. (They also wanted permanent access at the time, but the request was denied).
However, under domestic pressure, it will be a crucial time for Prabowo to draw such an extraordinary move due to the disease’s economy and the new controversial military law.
The unlikely, coincidence of Prabow has granted the demand to Russia, but it will be an unprecedented divergence.
Still, Russia’s opportunistic moves raise questions about why Putin is pitching against Biak now.
“I think it was an attempt to say, ‘Well,’ let’s see how far Jakarta can go,” Sussex said.
Of course, Indonesia is not the only place Russia is seeking to invade.
Between 2004 and 2023, Russia was the largest arms supplier in terms of Southeast Asia’s values. 25% of the $42 billion marketthough its share has since declined. However, as Russia runs a wartime economy, once the war in Ukraine ends, they may be looking for a new market.
“These [weapons] Factory cannot easily switch to washing machines,” Sussex said.
In war-torn Myanmar, Russia is an important ally and a supplier of weapons. This year, Myanmar’s military junta leader traveled to Moscow to deliver the gifts of six elephants.
The two countries have also signed an agreement in Myanmar on the development of a small nuclear power plant. Russia has been trapped in other countries in such a long-standing partnership, but has struggled to replicate its success in Southeast Asia.
“This is a known play from Russia,” says Sam Cranny-Evans, editor of UK-based Caliber Defense News and Consultancy. “Turkey’s power plants have been run and owned by Russia for at least 10 years, and Rosatom has signed several agreements with African countries on similar projects, creating close ties and dependencies.”
Even if there were no bids for Russian Biak, Putin has his thoughts in the minds of his traditional regional allies of the US, and that sense of security is already confusing.
“Putin is often considered a master strategist,” said Anu’s Sussex.
