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Ranking the 8 remaining NFL playoff teams by their chances of winning the 2026 Super Bowl

Ranking the 8 remaining NFL playoff teams by their chances of winning the 2026 Super Bowl

The Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs is now behind us, and we’re onto the Divisional Round with just eight teams left. The top-seeded teams from the AFC and NFC will join the competition, adding an intriguing layer to the playoffs.

Here’s a rundown of the remaining playoff teams, which have been reseeded based on their performances in the initial round.

Seven staff members contributed rankings, and the results reflect the average of their submissions.

If there’s anything you disagree with, well, you know whom to address.

The San Francisco 49ers have made their way back to the divisional round.

On Sunday, they faced off against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, managing to edge out the Super Bowl champions with a score of 23-19. This win serves as a testament to what the 49ers have faced throughout the season. Even after losing their star tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles early in the game, they persevered and eliminated the reigning champions.

This victory adds to their impressive season, marked by overcoming challenges. However, things won’t get any easier as they head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks—just a couple of weeks after losing to them in a bid for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Oddsmakers have already favored the Seahawks by a touchdown, partly due to their previous encounter in Week 18. In that game, the 49ers struggled offensively, managing only a 3-point score, which tied the lowest output during Kyle Shanahan’s tenure.

This rematch raises doubt about San Francisco’s chances given their recent performance.

Yet, if they manage to come out strong, it will be an additional challenge for them.

The Texans’ defense is undeniably commendable, but beyond that, they struggle. This team is heavily reliant on defense. During the Monday night game against the Steelers, C.J. Stroud faced significant difficulties moving the ball, and their running game was ineffective until the final moments when the outcome was already settled.

Historically, strong defense plays a crucial role in winning championships. Currently, only the Broncos in the AFC possess a defense comparable to this caliber.

This week, the Texans are set to play the Patriots. Notably, Drake Maye has consistently outperformed Aaron Rodgers this season. He’s shown better deep throw capability, established solid connections with his receivers, and maintained a more dependable running game. While Houston might not clinch victory relying solely on defense, if Stroud and the offense can elevate their game, the Texans could emerge as a surprising contender for the Super Bowl.

The Cardiac Bears are at it again.

On Saturday night, it seemed like the Chicago Bears were on the verge of an early playoff exit. Struggling offensively for the first half, they managed a 21-3 lead over the Green Bay Packers by halftime.

During the break, head coach Ben Johnson drew inspiration from a training camp video showing New England’s incredible comeback against Atlanta in Super Bowl I when they overturned a 28-3 deficit.

“My message was simply to remind the team that this has been done before,” Johnson explained. “Rather than wallowing in despair, we need to seize this as an opportunity to create an unforgettable moment.”

Chicago certainly turned the tide, scoring 28 points in the second half, leading to a thrilling 31-27 victory and a spot in the divisional round. This marked the seventh time this season the Bears triumphed in a crucial underdog matchup.

The Bears’ determination has been a hallmark of their season; everyone involved believed they could overcome any challenge. In a wide-open conference, that resilience might propel them far in the playoffs.

The Patriots may not have delivered their finest performance against the Chargers on Sunday night, but perhaps that was a blessing in disguise. With young players, including Drake Maye, managing to prevail despite some initial hurdles, they likely have a better grasp of what’s needed as they head into the divisional playoff round.

New England excels at deep throws and balancing their offensive strategy with a robust inside run game. Meanwhile, their defense is proficient in pass coverage, effectively neutralizing easy passes and putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, a point illustrated by their encounter with Justin Herbert and the Chargers.

There are lingering questions about the true capabilities of this team, but the upcoming divisional round may provide some answers. The Texans present an interesting challenge with their stellar defense, though their lackluster offense raises concerns. It’s going to be a real test for Drake Maye as he becomes the focal point of the team.

Josh Allen certainly has his share of bruises but plans to return for the divisional round with the Buffalo Bills.

In a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Allen and the Bills managed to outscore their opponents, even after experiencing two visits to the medical tent. He cleared concussion protocol after the first visit, but also had to be examined due to a hand injury incurred after a throw. During a touchdown run, he awkwardly twisted his foot.

Despite all of this, he and the Bills stood strong.

The danger that the Bills pose, largely rests on Allen’s shoulders. His caliber as a quarterback gives the Bills a fighting chance, no matter how banged up they might be.

In a competitive AFC, this could be substantial.

The Denver Broncos enjoyed a well-deserved bye week during Wild Card Weekend, relishing their achievement in securing the No. 1 seed. While other AFC teams fought for three spots, the Broncos rested comfortably at home.

Now, it’s their turn to dive back into the competitive fray.

There’s confidence in Denver, primarily rooted in their defensive prowess. The Broncos are noted for having one of the league’s top defenses, particularly in metrics related to run and pass efficiency.

However, there are concerns regarding their offensive performance, which is rather average in both running and passing departments. The jury is still out on how Bo Nix will handle his second playoff appearance, as he ranks lower than many other quarterbacks this season. Will that be enough for success in the playoffs?

The defense will likely lead the charge against the Buffalo Bills this week.

The Rams narrowly edged out the Panthers, which was sufficient for their playoff entry. Los Angeles didn’t impress against a Carolina defense lacking a solid pass rush, but with high-caliber players like Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams, they have a chance.

Looking ahead, the integration of tight ends into the Rams’ offense will be crucial. Coach Sean McVay made a significant impact by switching from outside receivers to focusing on inside plays with tight ends like Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson during critical third downs. While they may not have elite tight ends, their contributions can be vital.

The Bears are an exciting matchup. Los Angeles’ pass rush created considerable problems for Bryce Young during their game. Against Caleb Williams, a talented escape artist, the pressure will be more challenging to execute. However, Williams isn’t particularly proficient at moving the chains—he excels more at deep throws. The Rams managed to stifle the Panthers effectively last Saturday.

This upcoming game is likely to become a high-scoring affair, which plays to Los Angeles’ strengths.

Like the Broncos, the Seattle Seahawks begin our analysis with their defensive capabilities.

Given Mike McDonald’s coaching history, it’s not surprising that he’s cultivated an impressive defense. The Seahawks lead the league in run defense, and their pass defense isn’t too shabby either.

What stands out is Seattle’s reluctance to blitz—only 19.3% of their snaps involved blitzing, the seventh-lowest rate in the league. Yet, they still managed to apply pressure on 26.1% of dropbacks, among the top six percentages in the NFL this season.

This approach harkens back to traditional NFL styles: “If we can put pressure on with just four…”

But like the Broncos, offensive concerns linger. How much faith can you place in Sam Darnold? What’s going to happen when he has one of his off days?

Seahawks fans have two expectations: First, their defense should be solid enough to compensate for any slip-ups from Darnold, and second, they hope he’s learned from earlier missteps against the Rams this season.

If those hopes exist, it’s wise to approach them with caution. Still, it certainly helps that Seattle is facing a team they recently defeated.

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